Geopolitical Alpha

Forecast geopolitics and markets with this clear and insightful resource

Geopolitical Alpha - An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights.

Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses:

• What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade

• Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk

• How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns

Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.

Auteur

MARKO PAPIC is a Partner and Chief Strategist of Clocktower Group, an alternative investment management firm based in California. In 2011, he founded BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy practice, the world's only dedicated investment consultancy focused on political analysis.

Texte du rabat
Geopolitical Alpha

Not long ago, financial markets danced and central bankers called the tune. Today, investors confront a discordant world transformed by political paradigm shifts. In Geopolitical Alpha, investment strategist Marko Papic shares his framework for making sense of the new macro landscape. By focusing on material constraints, investors can ignore the ephemeral and irrelevant, generating consistent alpha even in the face of extreme uncertainty. Geopolitical Alpha is the guide to the future for anyone interested in geopolitics, economics, and finance.

"Above all else, Marko Papic is an astute strategist who understands that geopolitics is more important than ever for investors, as the world moves from unipolarity to multipolarity. The central message of his fascinating book is simple and compelling: never underestimate the influence of material constraints on policymakers."
John J. Mearsheimer, R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago; author, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

"In Geopolitical Alpha, Marko Papic provides a framework for thinking ahead of where we are and anticipating geostrategic events. Moreover, he does so in a prose that is as entertaining as it is informative."
H.R. McMaster, Lieutenant General (retd.), U.S. Army; Former White House National Security Adviser; author, Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World

"Geopolitical Alpha may do for macro-investing what Benjamin Graham's classic, Security Analysis, did for stock picking: provide a tool kit for generating excess returns by focusing on rigorous frameworks and clear-thinking outcomes, rather than breathless narratives driven by the media echo chamber and market whispers. Marko Papic blends a young person's ability for novel problem-solving with a veteran strategist's historical perspectives to create a smart, important work that will take its place on every serious investor's shelf."
Scott Bessent, Chief Investment Officer, Key Square Group

"Geopolitical Alpha spells out the notion that all preferences are subject to constraints. This book will change how I look at some of my research on investments and make me consider my own biases and preferences."
Paula Volent, Chief Investment Officer, Bowdoin College

"It is now clear that for the first time in our lifetimes geopolitics will be the biggest driver of markets and long run returns. To succeed in this new world, you need to understand geopolitics, and Marko is one of the best geopolitical strategists I know. If you want the best chance to achieve your return targets, read this book."
Raphael Arndt, CEO, Future Fund of Australia

"Geopolitical Alpha is a fascinating, entertaining, and highly readable book. Marko Papic offers a distinctive and compelling take on the interplay between geopolitics and financial markets, with a clear intellectual framework to guide macro investment decisions."
Jeremy C. Stein, Moise Y. Safra Professor of Economics, Harvard University; former member of the Board of Governors, U.S. Federal Reserve

Résumé

Forecast geopolitics and markets with this clear and insightful resource

Geopolitical Alpha An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights.

Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses:

• What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade
• Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk
• How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns
  Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.

Contenu

Acknowledgements

Foreword by Steve Drobny

Introduction

Part I - Scaffolding

Chapter 1 - We're Not in Kansas Anymore

Chapter 2 - The Constraint Framework: Three Pillars

Chapter 3 - The Wizards of Oz

Part II - The Constraints

Chapter 4 - Politics

Chapter 5 - The Economy and the Market

Chapter 6 - Geopolitics

Chapter 7 - Constitutional and Legal Constraints: The Constraint-Preference Hybrids

Chapter 8 - The Time Constraint: When Preferences Run Down the Clock

Part III - Operationalization

Chapter 9 - The Art of the Net Assessment

Chapter 10 - Game Theory - It's Not a Game!

Chapter 11 - Geopolitical Alpha

Chapter 12 - Conclusion

Bibliography