The book is about climate change and tropical cyclones, with an emphasis on the Indian Ocean. It highlights a probability of major changes in tropical cyclone activity across the various ocean basins. The Indian Ocean including the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are of particular concern because of the high population density along their coastlines. The book aims to reveal the scientific bases of the extreme events and the complexities inherent in combating their hazardous impact.

The chapters are authored by leading experts, both from research and operational meteorological environments. The book is intended to be a first step towards an ongoing international focus on potential impact of climate change in the Indian Ocean. Topics are related to current status of operational tropical cyclone forecasting and early warning systems, tropical cyclone genesis, assessment of risk and vulnerability from tropical cyclones and disaster preparedness, management and reduction. Thevolume addresses all aspects of global climate change impact on tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean, including documentation of past high impact events, archival maintenance, reconstruction and quality of best track data sets. Particularly discussed are forecasting, emergency response and impact of Tropical Cyclone Gonu which made landfall in Oman in 2007, Tropical Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar 2008) and Tropical Cyclone SIDR (Bangladesh 2007).

Key themes: climate change, tropical cyclones, cyclogenesis, Indian Ocean, cyclone forecasting, SIDR

Yassine Charabi is Assistant Professor at the Department of Geography at Sultan Qaboos University, Oman. Her main research interests are in applied climatology and meteorology. She is the author more than 20 scientific publications including the book Elements de Climatologie Urbaine: cas de la ville de Sfax (2006, Centre de Publication Universitaire, Tunisie).

Salim Al-Hatrushi is Assistant Professor at the Department of Geography at Sultan Qaboos University, Oman. His research focuses on coastal processes and geomorphology.

Yassine Charabi and Salim Al-Hatrushi were in the scientific organizing committee of the First International Conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change, co-sponsored by The World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Auteur

Salim Al-Hatrushi is Assistant Professor at the Department of Geography at Sultan Qaboos University, Oman. His research focuses on coastal processes and geomorphology.

Résumé
Tropical cyclones are topic that is not appropriately known to the public at large, but climate change has been on the public's mind since the last decade and a concern that has peaked in the new millennium. Like the television programs of Jean Yves Cousteau the 'plight of the oceans', have recent documentaries nurtured a conscio- ness that major climatological changes are in the offing, even have started to develop. The retreat of glaciers on mountain tops and in Polar Regions is 'being seen' on 'the small screen' and has favored an environmental awareness in all populations that are enjoying an average well-being on Planet Earth. The vivid images on screen of storms, floods, and tsunamis share the fear provoking landscapes of deforestation, desertification and the like. Watching such as this one is seen are voices warning of what over is 'in store' if the causative problems are not remedied. Talking and d- cussing are useful, but action must follow. Understanding the full ramifications of climate change on tropical cyclones is a task that will takes several decades. In Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a high probability of major changes in tropical cyclone activity across the various ocean basins is highlighted.

Contenu
Climate Change and Tropical Cyclone Activity.- A Climatology of Intense Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean Over the Past Three Decades (1980-2008).- Tropical Cyclones in a Hieararchy of Climate Models of Increasing Resolution.- Modeling Climate Change: Perspective and Applications in the Context of Bangladesh.- Changes in Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Over China.- Toward Improved Projection of the Future Tropical Cyclone Changes.- Global Warming and Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific.- Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: An Indian Ocean Perspective.- Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Indian Ocean.- Progress on Tropical Cyclogenesis.- Generating Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Databases for Input to Modeling of Extreme Winds, Waves, and Storm Surges.- Numerical Simulation of the Genesis of Cyclone Nargis Using a Global Cloud-System Resolving Model, NICAM.- Simulation of the North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones Using the Regional Environment Simulator: Application to Cyclone Nargis in 2008.- Simulation of Track and Intensity of Gonu and Sidr with WRF-NMM Modeling System.- Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting & Warning Systems.- Monitoring and Prediction of Cyclonic Disturbances Over North Indian Ocean by Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, New Delhi (India): Problems and Prospective.- Evaluation of the WRF and Quasi-Lagrangian Model (QLM) for Cyclone Track Prediction Over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.- Simulation of Tropical Cyclones Over Indian Seas: Data Impact Study Using WRF-Var Assimilation System.- Impact of Rain-Affected SSM/I Data Assimilation on the Analyses and Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones, and Study of Flow-Dependent Ensemble Background Errors, Over the Southwest Indian Ocean.- Statistical Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones for Bangladesh.- THORPEX and Its Application for Nargis by Ensemble Prediction.- Cyclone Gonu: The Most Intense Tropical Cyclone on Record in the Arabian Sea.- Real-Time Prediction of SIDR Cyclone Over Bay of Bengal Using High-Resolution Mesoscale Models.- Performance Evaluation of DGMANs NWP Models During Gonu.- Capabilities of Using Remote Sensing and GIS for Tropical Cyclones Forecasting, Monitoring, and Damage Assessment.- Assessment of Risk and Vulnerability from Tropical Cyclones, Including Construction, Archival and Retrieval of Best-Track and Historic Data Sets.- On Developing a Tropical Cyclone Archive and Climatology for the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans.- Improving the Australian Tropical Cyclone Database: Extension of the GMS Satellite Digital Image Archive.- Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Based on Historic Tropical Cyclones in the Arabian Sea.- The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Project: Overview of Methods and Indian Ocean Statistics.- Remote Sensing Imagery Assessment of Areas Severely Affected by Cyclone Gonu in Muscat, Sultanate of Oman.- Urban Sprawl and City Vulnerability: Where Does Muscat Stand?.- Flood Studies in Oman and the Difficulties in Using Rainfall-Runoff Analysis.- Disaster Preparedness, Management and Reduction.- Cyclone Gonu Storm Surge in the Gulf of Oman.- How the National Forecasting Centre in Oman Dealt with Tropical Cyclone Gonu.- Cyclone Disaster Management: A Case Study of MODES Experience with Cyclone Gonu.- Recent High Impact Tropical Cyclone Events in the Indian Ocean: Nargis, SIDR, Gonu and Other Events.- The Impact of Cyclone Gonu on Selected Coral Rich Areas of the Gulf of Oman Includin…