Will China's Rise Be Peaceful?

The rise of China will undoubtedly be one of the great spectacles of the twenty-first century. More than a dramatic symbol of the redistribution of global wealth, the event has marked the end of the unipolar international system and the arrival of a new era in world politics. How the security, stability and legitimacy built upon foundations that were suddenly shifting, adapting to this new reality is the subject of Will China's Rise be Peaceful? Bringing together the work of seasoned experts and younger scholars, this volume offers an inclusive examination of the effects of historical patterns-whether interrupted or intact-by the rise of China. The contributors show how strategies among the major powers are guided by existing international rules and expectations as well as by the realities created by an increasingly powerful China. While China has sought to signal its non-revisionist intent its extraordinary economic growth and active diplomacy has in a short time span transformed global and East Asian politics. This has caused constant readjustments as the other key actors have responded to the changing incentives provided by Chinese policies. Will China's Rise be Peaceful? explores these continuities and discontinuities in five areas: theory, history, domestic politics, regional politics, and great power politics. Equally grounded in theory and extensive empirical research, this timely volume offers a remarkably lucid description and interpretation of our changing international relations. In both its approach and its conclusions, it will serve as a model for the study of China in a new era.

Auteur

Asle Toje (b. 1974) is the Research Director at the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo. Toje's research interests are found at the intersection of security studies and European studies. Since Toje graduated from Cambridge University in 2006, Toje has published widely on European security and international politics. Among his last works are America, the EU and Strategic Culture (London, Routledge); The European Union as a Small Power (London, Macmillan, 2010) and Neoclassical realism in Europe (Manchester University Press, 2012). He has also authored a trilogy in Norwegian on the economic and political crisis in Europe: Red, White & Blue, The Iron Cage & Culture War (Dreyer 2012, 2014, 2017)

Contenu

Contents Security, Stability and Legitimacy 1 Abstracts in (chronological order) 7 Biographies (in alphabetical order) 18 Asle Toje: Introduction 22 Key dimensions 26 Security, Stability and Legitimacy 30 Structure 31 Stephen M. Walt: Rising Powers and the Risks of War: A Realist View of Sino-American Relations 33 Introduction 33 I. The Balance of Power and the Risks of War 36 II. The Historical Record 47 III. China's Rise and the Future of Conflict in Asia 53 IV. CONCLUSION 64 G. John Ikenberry: A New Order of Things? China, America, and the Struggle over World Order 68 Introduction 68 Rising States and Power Transitions 72 Rising States and Liberal International Order 77 The Geopolitics of Sino-American Rivalry 83 China and the World of Democracies 88 Conclusions 95 William C. Wohlforth: Not Quite the Same as it Ever was: Power Shifts and Contestation Over the American-Led World Order. 98 No (Hegemonic) War and Change in World Politics 101 Power Shift, Not Power Transition 111 Institutions and Strategic Incentives 118 Conclusion 124 Rosemary Foot: Restraints on Conflict in the China-US relationship: Contesting Power Transition Theory. 127 Introduction 127 Power Transition Theory 129 The Return of Thucydides 135 Regional State Preferences and the Shaping of Regional Order 140 Economic Interdependence and Globalized Production Processes 145 Domestic Economic and Political Priorities 150 Conclusion 152 Historical perspectives 154 Geir Lundestad: Rise and Fall of Great Powers - the uses of history. 154 Introduction 154 Realism and the rise of China 155 Rise, decline and war 158 The United States, China and cooperation 162 Interdependence and war 166 The US still far ahead 169 Conclusion 174 Christopher Layne: The Sound of Distant Thunder: The Pre-World War I Anglo-German Rivalry as a Model for Sino-American Relations in the Early 21st Century 179 Introduction: 179 The uses of theory 182 The return of power politics 184 The difficulties of rising peacefully 186 Bilateral power rivalries 189 The United States and stability 194 The Carr Moment 197 After Pax Americana 200 Odd Arne Westad: The Weight of the Past in China's Relations with Its Asian Neighbors 203 Introduction 203 The United States and China's Relations with Its Neighbors 204 China and the Korean Question 207 The troublesome ally 211 China and the Challenge of Southeast Asian Integration 215 The promise of ASEAN 220 Conclusion 221 Domestic dimensions 224 Minxin Pei: The Rise and Fall of the China Model: Implications for World Peace 224 Introduction 224 Chinese Economic Growth 228 Patronage and Co-optation 236 Selective Repression 241 Manipulation of Nationalism 245 Concluding Thoughts 249 Johan Lagerkvist: Curtailing China's rise before the Real Take-Off? Censorship, Social Protests, and Political Legitimacy 252 Introduction 252 Tightening online censorship 259 Climate of compliance 261 Revisiting the Principal-Agent Dilemma 268 Social protests in rural areas: The Wukan incident 270 Wukan villagers' effective media strategy 273 Conclusions and implications 277 Domestic politics- international policies 283 David Shambaugh: Is China a Global Power? 283 Introduction 283 China's Diplomatic Power 289 China's Military Power 292 China's Search for Soft Power 295 China's Economic Power 298 Still a Developing Country 302 Conclusion & Outlook 304 Zhang Ruizhuang: Despite the ?New Assertiveness?, China Is Not Up for Challenging the Global Order 309 Introduction: Is The Wolf Really Coming This Time? 309 The China Model 310 National Power: The Key Determinant 314 The challenge of domestic stability 317 Changing the World Order from Within 319 Conclusion 324 China and its rivals 348 Liselotte Odgaard: Coexistence in China's Regional and Global Maritime Security Strategies: Revisionism by Defensive Means 348 Introduction 348 Coexistence and legitimacy in international political change 351 The Diaoyu/Senkaku dispute: Coexistence and regional security issues 354 Anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden 360 Concluding remarks 365 Yoshihide Soeya : The Rise of China in Asia: Japan at the Nexus 370 Introduction 370 The Rise of China in Global and Asian Contexts 372 The Origin of the History Problem 377 China Policy of a "Normal" Japan 381 Conclusion 389 Jonathan Holslag: Can India Balance China in Asia? 392 Introduction 392 The Causes of Discord 393 Military Balancing 400 "Diplomatic balancing" 406 Economic competition 408 Conclusion 413 Michael Cox: Axis of Opposition: China, Russia and the West 414 Introduction 415 United by history 423 China and Russia - international cooperation 432 Conclusion: China , Russia, Ukraine and Beyond 438 Steven E. Lobell: How Should America respond to China's Military Rise? 442 Increasing Sino-American Competition 448 Offshore Balancing versus Deep Engagement Strategies 450 New Model of Realist Major Power Relations 454 Disaggregate Power 455 Appropriate Elements of Power Rather than Aggregate Capabilities 458 Targeted Balancing 459 Conclusion 460