Climate change highlights the challenges for long-term policy making in the face of persistent and irreducible levels of uncertainties. It calls for the development of flexible approaches, innovative governance and other elements that contribute to effective and adaptive decision-making. Exploring these new approaches is also a challenge for those involved in climate research and development of adaptation policy.

Targeted specifically at policy developers and advisors, practitioners, climate knowledge brokers, researchers and interested adaptation decision-makers, this book differs from other titles addressing climate change adaptation and uncertainty by using real life cases to address distinct and pertinent uncertainties in actual adaptation situations. The editors introduce the role of uncertainties in informing adaptation decisions, showing why and how this is important, and why decisions do not have to wait until uncertainties are resolved. They go on to explore uncertainty assessments supporting decision-making on climate change adaptation, with sections on variability, uncertainty typology, climate change and projection of risks. A discussion of national adaptation planning follows with sections on sources and levels of uncertainty, communication of uncertainty and guidance for adaptation planning under uncertainty.

The book provides a dozen real-life examples of adaptation decision making in the form of case studies:

· Studies on water supply management in Portugal, England and Wales and Hungary

· Studies on flooding, including flood risk in Ireland, coastal flooding and erosion in Southwest France and flood management in New Zealand's Hutt River region

· Studies on transport and utilities, including the Austrian Federal railway system and public transit in Dresden, and Québec hydro-electric power

· A report examining communication of large numbers of climate scenarios in Dutch climate adaptation workshops

The concluding section outlines a new support framework for adaptation decisions under uncertainty, as well as guidance, recommendations and decision support for readers to apply in their own work. In the spirit of the newly adopted EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change, the book aims - as does the CIRCLE-2 project from which it emanates - to assist informed decision-making, and to provide added value through increased knowledge sharing.

Contenu

Introduction to the Use of Uncertainties to Inform Adaptation Decisions.- 1.1 Why Is Guidance on the Role of Uncertainty Needed and Who Is It For?- 1.2 Why Is It Important to Include Uncertainties in Adaptation Planning?- 1.3 What Information Is Included in This Book and Where Can I Find It?- 1.4 How Can This Publication Be Used?- Suggested Readings.- 2. Background On Uncertainty Assessment Supporting Climate Adaptation Decision-Making.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 Uncertainties in Climate Change.- 2.3 Uncertainty Typology.- 2.4 Methods of Assessing Uncertainty.- 2.5 Decision-Making Frameworks Under Climate Change Uncertainty.- 2.6 Using Uncertainty Assessment in Decision-Making Practice On Climate Adaptation.- 2.7 Cases, Types of Uncertainty, and Methods As Used in Chapter 4.- 2.8 Communicating Uncertainty Assessment To Policy-Makers and Decision-Makers.- 2.9 Conclusions.- 3. How Is Uncertainty Addressed in the Knowledge Base For National Adaptation Planning?- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Overview of National Adaptation Activities.- 3.3 Consideration of Uncertainty in the Knowledge Base For Adaptation.- 3.4 Conclusions.- 4. Showcasing Practitioners' Experiences.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Real Life Case Studies.- 5. Making Adaptation Decisions Under Uncertainty - Lessons From Theory And Practice.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 A New Support Framework For Adaptation Decisions Under Uncertainty.- 5.3 What Has Practice Shown Us?- 5.4 Dealing With Uncertainty in Adaptation Decision-Making.- 5.5 Guidance and Recommendations.- 5.6 Final Remarks.- Index.