100 years. However, we are only now beginning to understand the climatic impact of the remarkable events that are currently in train in subarctic waters, and models remain undecided on some of the most basic issues that link change in our northern seas to climate. Reviewing the achievements of an intense recent observing and modelling effort, this volume intends to assemble the body of evidence that climate models will need if they are one day to make that assessment, quantifying the ocean exchanges through subarctic seas, describing their importance to climate as we currently understand it, explaining their variability, setting out our current ideas on the forcing of these fluxesand our improved capability in modelling the fluxes themselves and the processes at work. Much of that evidence is assembled here for the first time.

Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and scientists in oceanographic and climate research institutions, fisheries laboratories, arctic/polar institutions, climate change policy advisors.

Résumé
The Ocean-Atmosphere-Cryosphere s- tem of the Arctic is of unique importance to the World, its climate and its peoples and is changing rapidly; it is no accident that the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) was the first comprehensive regional assessment of climate-impact to be conducted. Reporting in 2005, ACIA concluded that changes in climate and in ozone and UV radiation levels were likely to affect every aspect of life in the Arctic. In effect, the ACIA process was essentially one of prediction: projecting that large climatic changes are likely to occur over the 21st century and documenting what might be their projected impacts. Although the ACIA Report was based on the most modern synthesis of obser- tions, modelling and analysis by hundreds of Arctic scientists, it notes with clarity that its conclusions are only a first step in what must be a continuing process. nd Reporting in November 2007, the 2 International Conference on Arctic Research Planning (ICARP II) has recently made much the same point. To make its proj- tions with higher confidence, --- to take the crucial second step in other words, -- both reports plainly state the need for a more complete and detailed understanding of the complex processes, interactions, and feedbacks that drive and underlie 'change' at high northern latitudes, including particularly the long-term processes of circulation and exchange in our northern seas where much of the decadal 'm- ory' for Arctic change must reside.

Contenu

Arctic-Subarctic Ocean Fluxes: Defining the Role of the Northern Seas in Climate.- The Inflow of Atlantic Water, Heat, and Salt to the Nordic Seas Across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge.- Volume and Heat Transports to the Arctic Ocean Via the Norwegian and Barents Seas.- Variation of Measured Heat Flow Through the Fram Strait Between 1997 and 2006.- Is Oceanic Heat Transport Significant in the Climate System?.- Long-Term Variability of Atlantic Water Inflow to the Northern Seas: Insights from Model Experiments.- Climatic Importance of Large-Scale and Mesoscale Circulation in the Lofoten Basin Deduced from Lagrangian Observations.- Freshwater Storage in the Northern Ocean and the Special Role of the Beaufort Gyre.- Modelling the Sea Ice Export Through Fram Strait.- Fresh-Water Fluxes via Pacific and Arctic Outflows Across the Canadian Polar Shelf.- The Arctic-Subarctic Exchange Through Hudson Strait.- Freshwater Fluxes East of Greenland.- The Changing View on How Freshwater Impacts the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.- Constraints on Estimating Mass, Heat and Freshwater Transports in the Arctic Ocean: An Exercise.- Variability and Change in the Atmospheric Branch of the Arctic Hydrologic Cycle.- Simulating the Terms in the Arctic Hydrological Budget.- Is the Global Conveyor Belt Threatened by Arctic Ocean Fresh Water Outflow?.- Simulating the Long-Term Variability of Liquid Freshwater Export from the Arctic Ocean.- The Overflow Transport East of Iceland.- The Overflow Flux West of Iceland: Variability, Origins and Forcing.- Tracer Evidence of the Origin and Variability of Denmark Strait Overflow Water.- Transformation and Fate of Overflows in the Northern North Atlantic.- Modelling the Overflows Across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge.- Satellite Evidence ofChange in the Northern Gyre.- The History of the Labrador Sea Water: Production, Spreading, Transformation and Loss.- Convective to Gyre-Scale Dynamics: Seaglider Campaigns in the Labrador Sea 2003-2005.- Convection in the Western North Atlantic Sub-Polar Gyre: Do Small-Scale Wind Events Matter?.- North Atlantic Deep Water Formation in the Labrador Sea, Recirculation Through the Subpolar Gyre, and Discharge to the Subtropics.- Accessing the Inaccessible: Buoyancy-Driven Coastal Currents on the Shelves of Greenland and Eastern Canada.