Energy: The Countdown considers the possibility that a catastrophic energy crisis might become inevitable and could explode even before any comprehensive emergency plans are concerted. The goal is to raise with both public opinion and decision-makers the consciousness that there exists a real threat to human society in the form of a looming energy crisis.
This book is comprised of 11 chapters and begins by emphasizing energy as the oxygen of economic life, an essential requirement for the development of modern society, and how a shortage or limitation of energy resources can seriously endanger the world's economic development. The constraints that will limit the supply of certain types of energy are highlighted, along with the importance of long-term planning. The next section deals with the politics of energy, paying particular attention to the oil crisis and its impact on international relations since October 1973, along with the nuclear power crisis and the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The relationship between geopolitics and energy policy and the nature of the energy problem are also discussed, together with energy sources such as coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy. The final chapter assesses the economic effects of a massive increase in oil prices.
This monograph will be of interest to energy policymakers and government officials.

Contenu

Foreword
Acknowledgments
Recommendations
Preliminaries
Part One: The Past The Politics of Energy: The Oil and Nuclear Power Crisis
Chapter I. The Great Oil Adventure
I. The Basic Characteristics of the Oil Industry
II. The Birth and Hegemony of the Majors
III. Sharing the Oil Rent
Chapter II. The Oil Crisis and International Relations since October 1973
I. Fall 1973
II. Reactions to the October 1973 Events
III. 1974 and 1975: Confusion then Calm
IV. The CIEC
V. 1976-1978: Quiet on the Oil Front
VI. What Happened?
Chapter III. The Nuclear Energy Crisis
I. Why the Opposition to Nuclear Energy?
II. The Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
III. Remarks on the Nature of Nonproliferation
IV. A Few Conclusions
Chapter IV. Geopolitics and Energy Policy
I. Upheaval in the World Order
II. The Third World and OPEC
III. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
IV. The United States
V. The Other Energy-Importing Industrial Countries and the IEA
Part Two: The Future The Energy Crisis: Outlook and Scenarios
Chapter I. The Nature of the Energy Problem
I. Renewable and Nonrenewable Forms of Energy
II. Pollution and Degradation of Energy
III. Energy and Civilization
IV. A Necessary Decision
V. An Impasse?
Chapter II. Global Energy Demand
I. General Observations on the Relationship between Energy Demand and Economic Activity
II. Predicted Annual Energy Consumption to 2025
Chapter III. Toward an Imbalanced Oil Market
I. A Question of Method
II. The Decline in the Gross Increase in Reserves
III. The Adjustment of Supply and Demand
Chapter IV. Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear and Other Energy Sources
I. Natural Gas
II. Coal
III. Nuclear Energy
IV. Other Energy Sources
Chapter V. Anticipating the Second Energy Crisis to Try to Avoid it
I. A Second Crisis is Likely
II. Insurance against the Future
Chapter VI. Future Evolution of the Price of Energy
I. "The" Price of Energy: A Useful Fiction
II. The Principle of Marginal-Cost Pricing
III. Setting the Price of Energy and Distributing the Income in Industrial Countries
IV. The Need for International Cooperation
Chapter VII. The Economic Effects of a Massive Increase in the Price of Oil
I. The Effects of the Increase at the End of 1973
II. 1973 Crisis, Monetary Disorder and Threats of Protectionism
III. Future Shock
Summary and Conclusions
Appendices
Appendix I. Oil: Taxation Costs and Sharing the Rent
I. Tax Policy of the Oil-Producing Countries since Introduction of the Fifty-Fifty System
II. The Tax Policy Applicable to American Concessionaires
III. The Evolution of Oil Prices between 1860 and 1977
Appendix II. Units and Orders of Magnitude
I. Preliminary Remarks
II. Mechanical and Heating Units
III. Heating Value of Fuels and Energy Equivalents
IV. Order of Size of Electricity Consumption of a Few Common Appliances
Appendix III. Supplementary Illustrations and Tables
I. Per Capita Energy Consumption
II. Oil Requirements of Main Countries and Groups of Countries
III. Energy Consumption and Dependence of EEC Countries
IV. Economic Data
Bibliography
Index