Evaluating Climate Change Scenarios

Mathias K. B. Lüdecke

Martin Budde

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The paper develops adequate evaluation algorithms for applying Atmospheric - Oceanic General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulated ...

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The paper develops adequate evaluation algorithms for applying Atmospheric - Oceanic General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulated climate scenarios over Hyderabad, India. The AOGCM simulated results were generated for the IPCC AR4 process and considered for a high (A2) and a low (B1) global CO2-emission scenario. The considered time slices are 1981-2000 (reference climate), 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. These model runs were evaluated to obtain projections of the four most impact-relevant climatic characteristics for Hyderabad: the frequency distribution of daily precipitation (important, e.g, for urban ooding), the total annual precipitation (e.g. for urban water supply), the probability and duration of heat waves (e.g. for human health) and the annual mean temperature (e.g. for urban agriculture).