Age, Time, and Fertility: Applications of Exploratory Data Analysis describes change in the age pattern of fertility that responds to a specific need in making fertility comparisons across time and place.
This book discusses a modeling process based on Tukey's exploratory data analysis (EDA) methods, which is proved very effective in other fields for detecting underlying patterns, even in flawed data.
The first part of this text provides an introduction to the philosophy and tools of EDA and to the data analyzed, examining in detail the process of developing and standardizing the closely fitting, few-parameter descriptions of demographic change in time sequence. The rest of the chapters examine the results and applications of fertility modeling and establish relations between change in the age pattern of fertility and level of fertility.
This publication is intended for those interested in the measures and methods of fertility change that can be applied to demographic data.

Contenu

List of Figures and Tables
Preface
Acknowledgments
I. Introduction
Notes
II. Preparing for an Exploratory Analysis: Data and Analytic Approach
Introduction
Data in Time Sequence-Two Centuries of Swedish Fertility Rates
Exploratory Data Analysis-The Philosophy and the Tools
Summary
Notes
III. Starting an Exploratory Analysis: Choices and Procedures
Introduction
Selected Time Sequences of Age-specific Fertility
Form of the Data
Re-expression of the Data
Selection of Models for Fitting to Fertility Data
Robust-Resistant Iterative Fitting Procedures
Measures of Goodness-of-Fit
Adapting to Computer Capabilities
Summary
Notes
IV. Residuals: The Evidence of Goodness-of-Fit
Introduction
Size of Residuals
Structure in Residuals
Summary
Notes
V. Re-presentation of Fits: Demographically Guided Standard Forms
Introduction
Form of Re-presentation of Double Multiplicative Fits
Form of Re-presentation of Triple Multiplicative Fits
Demographic Logic in the Choice of a Standard Form
Functions of the Standard-form Components
Summary
Notes
VI. Age Patterns of Overall Fertility: Two Centuries of Change
Introduction
Cohort Fits by Single Year of Age
Two Centuries of Overall Fertility: Cohort and Cross-sectional Perspectives
Fertility Change in the Counties of Sweden from 1860 to 1970
Summary
Notes
VII. Age Patterns of Marital Fertility: Seven Decades of Change
Introduction
Comparison of the EHR and Coale Descriptions of Marital Fertility
Expanded Focus on Cross-sectional Marital Fertility Change
Change in Marital Fertility Distributions Not Accounted for by Change in the Level of Marital Fertility
Change in Age-specific Proportions Married: Approximation from EHR Fertility Parameters
Use of Intersequence EHR Relations to Detect the Unusual and Estimate Missing Data
Cohort Marital Fertility and Its Relation to Cohort Overall Fertility
Future Directions in Exploring Overall and Marital Fertility Relations
Summary
Notes
VIII. Preliminary Cross-population Comparisons of Fertility Patterns: Evidence for the Generality of EHR Age Standards
Introduction
Procedure for Expressing Age-specific Fertility Schedules in Terms of EHR-derived Age Standards
Cross-population Comparisons of Fertility Patterns
Summary
Notes
IX. Conclusion
Appendix A. The Relationship of Empirical Analysis to More Narrowly Modeled Analysis
Kinds of Models
The General Character of Combinational Broad Stocks
Comments on EHR Analysis
The Structure of the Coale-Trussell Model
Comparison of the Breckenridge EHR and Coale-Trussell Models
References
Appendix B. Robust-Resistant Fitting Procedures and a Robust-Resistant Measure of Fit
Iteratively Weighted Fitting of Two or Three Multiplicative Components to an m X n Matrix
A Robust-Resistant Measure of Fit
Appendix C. Re-presentation of EHR Fits in a Standard Form
A Selected Standard-form Re-presentation of a Rank-two Fit
A Selected Standard-form Re-presentation of a Rank-three Fit
Notes
References
Index