In 2004 the Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania - finalized their return to the West by joining NATO and the EU after definitively throwing off their 'captive nations' status by regaining independence in 1991. This has not, however, halted resurgent Russian revanchism in the region; given Russia's aggressive actions starting in Ukraine in 2014, defense of the Baltic has gained a new urgency and prominence. In The West's East, Lukas Milevski places the Baltic states in strategic and historical perspective. Through these nations' experiences, he sheds light on how independent states have been able to persist, despite being surrounded by predatory great powers. The work offers a deep overview of the region's history, from the indigenous Baltic tribes which populated it to the post-Cold War era, followed by recent political analogies of West-Russia relations. Analyses of today's strategic balance in the region indicate the various actors' geopolitical outlooks, strategic cultures, military capabilities, and non-military security vulnerabilities. As Milevski argues, the NATO-Russia relationship will play the major role in any potential conflict in the Baltic, but neutrals Finland and Sweden must also be factored into the strategic analysis. Using the logic of strategy he anticipates potential military interaction in the region step by step-from deterrence, to Russia's choice of offensive strategy, to area denial and NATO's return and break into the Baltic theater, and finally war termination-to determine the answer to the ultimate question: how much defense for the Baltic is enough? The West's East gives both experts and policymakers alike the background and framework for thinking strategically about a region that has re-emerged as a significant geopolitical concern in the Putin-Trump era.

Auteur

Lukas Milevski teaches strategy-related topics as a Lecturer at the University of Leiden. He is a Baltic Sea Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute and is currently researching Polish deterrence for the Sasakawa Peace Foundation/Changing Character of War Programme, University of Oxford, where he also wrote this volume as a Smith Richardson Strategy and Policy Fellow 2015-16.

Contenu

1 Introduction, Or Baltic Defense in the Shadow of Ukraine 2 Great Power Geopolitics and Baltic Independence I: From the Tribes to 1795 3 Great Power Geopolitics and Baltic Independence II: From 1795 to the Present 4 Analogies for Contemporary West-Russia Relations 5 Today's Strategic Actors in the Baltic I: Nato and Neutrals 6 Today's Strategic Actors in the Baltic II: Russia 7 Strategic Interaction in Baltic Defense 8 How Much Defense is Enough for the Baltic States Bibliography Index