Lost Decades in Growth Performance

There have been many noticeable incidents of 'lost decades' in economic growth, occurring in countries across the world. It has been found that in many economies, the lost decade phenomenon persists, even after the conventional set of contributing factors such as per capita income, fertility rate, life expectancy, rule of law, educational attainment, ratio of investment to national income, and openness have been taken into account. This book explains where and how these lost decades in economic growth occur in the world. The authors identify that dominant macroeconomic factors contributing to their occurrence are an abnormal supply of credits relative to national income, and poor demand management. The study pays special attention to the cases of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, exploring their specific cases and analyzing contributing factors. While Japan suffered from excessive credit prior to the bubble bursting, and from insufficient domestic demand subsequently, Korea's growth has been stunted through structural imbalances between and within industries, as well as through changes in the orientation of public policies from growth to equality. Adversely, reduced economic growth in Taiwan has led from its populism-ridden democracy and mass media, as well as from internal disputes over national identity. Lost Decades in Growth Performance provides a revealing insight into the factors affecting economic growth across the world, and will be an invaluable resource for anyone with an interest in global and Asian economics. It also offers a fundamental source of reference for students and academics in general equilibrium models, economic development and East Asian economies.

Auteur

Yun-Peng Chu, ex-Minister without Portfolio, is Professor of Economics at the National Central University, Taiwan. He has published articles in journals such as the American Economic Review and Journal of Development Economics, and co-edited many books including The Political Economy of Comparative Development into the 21st Century and The East Asia High-Tech Drive.

Contenu

List of Tables List of Figures Preface Notes on Contributors 1 Excessive Credits and the 'Lost Decades' in Growth Performance; Yun-Peng Chu 1.1 Introduction 1.2 The growth equation 1.3 The results 1.4 The 'Lost Decades' 1.5 Concluding remarks and the plan for work in this book Appendix: List of right-hand side variables with their instruments and sources 2 A Third Decade of Low Growth? Lessons from Japan on Financial Management and Economic Growth; Richard A. Werner 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Demand management policies - the puzzle of their failure 2.3 The failure of supply-side policies 2.4 The link between money and the economy 2.5 The Quantity Theory of Credit and its policy implications 2.6 Conclusion 3 It is Not Structural Change, but Domestic Demand: Productivity Growth of Japan; Akira Kohsaka and Junichi Shinkai 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Background 3.3 Methodology and dataset 3.4 Intra-industry productivity growth vs. inter-industry reallocation of labor 3.5 Inter-industry reallocation of labor 3.6 Intra-industry productivity growth 3.7 Concluding remarks: it is not structural change, but domestic demand 4 Long Waves of Prosperity and Decline: What Makes Financial-led Capitalism Different?; Óscar Dejuán 4.1 Introduction 4.2 The real side of the economy and the problem of effective demand driving sectors and stabilizing fiscal policies 4.3 The balance of payments constraint and the deflationary forces in the international economy 4.4 The financial side: from credit explosion to credit crunch, debt draps and speculative bubbles 4.5 The dual role of banks and the need to differentiate credit regulation according to the borrower and the use of loans 4.6 Conclusions 5 The Korean Economy: Structural Changes and Challenges; Cheonsik Woo and Jinhee Park 5.1 Introduction 5.2 The Korean economy today - two contrasting views 5.3 Industrial and business landscape 5.4 Core tasks to resume the virtuous circle Appendix: Recent policy initiatives to promote theservice sector 6 Taiwan's Lost Decades: Populism and Internal Contradiction; Yun-Peng Chu 6.1 Taiwan's lost decade 6.2 Failures in collective action caused by populism 6.3 The mutinous mutation of the developmental state in Taiwan 6.4 Short-sighted economic policies: other revealed failures in collective action caused by populism 6.5 More growth equations 6.6 Clash between nationalisms: textbooks as leading indicators 6.7 Clash between the economy and politics 6.8 Possible remedies? 6.9 Concluding remarks Appendix 6.1: Results of a survey on nationalism Appendix 6.2: Results of an experiment of delegated deliberation 7 Paradigmatic Shifts in Policies, Evolution of the Political Economy and the Lost Decade in Growth Performance; Yun-Peng Chu 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Paradigmatic shifts in economic policies 7.3 The lost decade in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Thailand and Turkey 7.4 The dynamic evolution of the political economy and the lost decades: Taiwan and South Korea 7.5 Concluding remarks