Futures for a Declining City

Futures for a Declining City: Simulations for the Cleveland Area discusses the processes associated with decrease in urban population or "urban decline and other measures of urban size or function.
This book describes the case study that analyzes what will happen to a declining metropolitan area and its central city if current trends on urban decline continue, and how that outcome might be affected by various policies designed to counteract further loss. This case study focuses on the Cleveland Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) and its central city, Cleveland. The likely future course of urban decline acquired through quantitative estimates and methodologies for comparing policies is also covered in this text.
This publication is aimed primarily at economists, urban planners, and political scientists, including those who formulate policies affecting declining urban areas.

Contenu

Preface

1. Introduction and Summary
   The Nature of This Study
   The Key Urban Variables Used
   The Specific Policy Packages Analyzed
   Findings Concerning the Continuation of Present Trends (The Base Case)
   Findings Concerning Alternative Futures for the Cleveland SMSA
   Findings Concerning City Revitalization Policies in General
2. Continuation of Present Trends and Policies - The Base Case
   Concept
   Employment, Population, and Income
   Housing and Household Developments
   Fiscal Factors
   Transportation
3. The Analysis of Future Policy Changes
   Introduction
   Impacts on Location of Employers
   Impacts on Location of Households
   Secondary Impacts
   Fiscal Impacts
   Transportation Impacts
4. A Job Stimulus Package
   Concept
   Policies
   Results
   Two Variants: Income Transfers and Jobs Targeted to City Residents
5. A Housing Rehabilitation Package
   Concept
   Policies
   Impacts
   Housing Tables
   Other Changes from the Base Case
   Implications
6. A Transit Improvement Package
   Concept
   Policies
   Methodology
   Results
   In-City Variant
   Conclusions
7. A Fiscal Equalization Package
   Concept
   Policies and Immediate Fiscal Effects
   Location Response to Fiscal Equalization
   Additional Fiscal Effects
   Summary
8. A Suburban Growth Control Package
   Concept
   Policies
   Impacts
   Housing Tables
   Other Changes from the Base Case
   Implications
9. The Impact of an All-Out Revitalization Strategy and Comparisons among the Policy Packages
   The All-Out Revitalization Package and Its Impacts
   Comparison and Interpretation of Policy Packages
   Sensitivity to Secondary Effects Assumptions
10. Energy Scarcity Scenarios
    Adjustment Mechanisms
    High-Cost Scenario
    Severe Shortage Scenario
    Conclusion
11. Recommendations
    Appendix A. Computation of Secondary Effects and Transportation Variables
    Appendix B. Detailed Projections and Results
    Appendix C. Acronyms
    Index