For centuries, humans lived with the ?uncertainties? of everyday life, unaware of probability theory and how it might be applied to the solution of simple problems of daily living or used to study the laws of nature. It was not until the advent of the scientific method with its emphasis on observation and experimentation that people began to think about the role probability might play in areas of life that once seemed ruled by blind chance. Today, of course, probability theory is the basis of statistics and game theory, and can be immensely useful to anyone engaged in business, the social and physical sciences, and many other areas of endeavor.
This volume demonstrates that the study of probability can be fun, challenging, and relevant ? both to daily life and to modern scientific thought. Lucid, well-written chapters introduce the reader to the concept of possibilities, including combinations and permutations; probabilities, expectations (utility, decision making, more), events, rules of probability, conditional probabilities, probability distributions, the law of large numbers, including Chebyshev's theorem, and more.
Numerous exercises throughout the text are designed to reinforce the methods and ideas explained in the book. Answers to the odd-numbered exercises are provided. A bibliography and summary round out this valuable introduction that will be of great help to anyone engaged in business, social sciences, statistical work, game theory, or just the business of living.

Contenu

INTRODUCTION
1 POSSIBILITIES
Introduction
Tree Diagrams
Multiplication Rules
Permutations
Factorials
Indistinguishable Objects
Combinations
Binomial Coefficients
2 PROBABILITIES
Introduction
The Classical Concept
Probabilities and Odds
The Frequency Interpretation
Subjective Probabilities
Summary
3 EXPECTATIONS
Introduction
Mathematical Expectation
Expectations and Subjective Probabilities
Utility
Decision Making
4 EVENTS
Introduction
The Sample Space
Events
Compound Events
The Number of Elements in a Set
5 RULES OF PROBABILITY
Introduction
The Postulates of Probability
Probability Measures
Some Further Rules
General Addition Rules
6 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
Introduction
Conditional Probability
Multiplication Rules
Rule of Elimination
Bayes' Rule
7 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
Introduction
Probability Functions
The Mean
The Binomial Distribution
Binomial Tables
A Bayesian Application
The Hypergeometric Distribution
The Geometric Distribution
The Multinomial Distribution
8 THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
Introduction
The Standard Deviation
Chebyshev's Theorem
The Law of Large Numbers
Technical Note
SUMMARY
BIBLIOGRAPHY
TABLES
ANSWERS TO ODD-NUMBERED EXERCISES
INDEX