Subjunctive Reasoning

I am indebted to many people for the help they gave me in the writing of this book. lowe a large debt to David Lewis and Robert Stalnaker, on both general and specific grounds. As becomes apparent from reading the notes, the book would not have been possible without their pioneering work on subjunctive conditionals. In addition, both were kind enough to provide specific comments on earlier versions of different parts of the book, and Stalnaker read and commented on the entire manuscript. Closer to home, I am indebted to my colleagues Rolf Eberle and Henry Kyburg, Jf. , my erstwhile colleague Keith Lehrer, and numerous graduate students for their helpful comments on various parts of the manuscript. Some of the material contained herein appeared first in the form of journal articles, and I wish to thank the journals in question for allowing the material to be reprinted here. Chapter One contains material taken from 'The "Possible Worlds" Analysis of Counter-factuals', published in Phil. Studies 29 (1976), 469 (Reidel); Chapter Two contains material much revised from 'Four Kinds of Conditionals', Am. Phil. Quarterly 12 (1975), and Chapter Three contains much revised material from 'Subjunctive Generaliza­ tions', Synthese 28 (1974), 199 (Reidel). CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1. SUBJUNCTIVE REASONING There exists quite a variety of statements which are in some sense 'subjunctive'.

Contenu

I. Introduction.- 1. Subjunctive Reasoning.- 2. The Linguistic Approach.- 3. The 'Possible Worlds' Approach.- 4. Conclusions.- Notes.- II. Four Kinds of Conditionals.- 1. Introduction.- 2. The Four Kinds.- 3. 'Even if' Subjunctives.- 4. 'Might Be' Conditionals.- 5. Necessitation Conditionals.- 6. Simple Subjunctives.- 7. The Axiomatization of Simple Subjunctives.- 8. Conclusions 44.- Notes.- III. Subjunctive Generalizations.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Rudiments of an Analysis.- 3. Strong Generalizations.- 4. Weak Generalizations.- 5. Conclusions.- Notes.- IV. The Basic Analysis of Subjunctive Conditionals.- 1. Introduction.- 2. The Analysis of M.- 3. Simple Propositions.- 4. Counter-Legal Conditionals.- 5. Subject Preference.- Notes.- V. Quantification, Modalities, and Conditionals.- 1. Referential Opacity.- 2. Transworld Identity.- 3. Kripke's Observation.- 4. Quantified Modal Logic.- 5. Conditionals.- Notes.- VI. The Full Theory.- 1. Syntax.- 2. Semantics.- 3. Infinitary Operators.- 4. The Introduction of Sets.- 5. Some Consequences of the Analysis.- Note.- VII. Causes.- 1. Introduction.- 2. The Ontology of Causes.- 3. Some Causal Relations.- 4. Causal Sufficiency.- 4.1. Nomic Subsumption.- 4.2. Contingently Sufficient Conditions.- 4.3. Causal Sufficiency and Subjunctive Conditionals.- 5. Remarks on the Analysis.- >6. The Logic of Causes.- Notes.- VIII. Probabilities.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Indefinite Probabilities.- 2.1. Relative Frequencies.- 2.2. Subjunctive Indefinite Probabilities.- 2.3. Strong Indefinite Probabilities.- 2.4. Weak Indefinite Probability Statements.- 3. The Redefinition of M.- 3.1. Strong and Weak Definite Probability.- 3.2 Probabilistic Laws.- 3.3 The Analysis of M.- 4. Simple Subjunctive Probability.- 4.1. The Variety of Probabilities.- 4.2. Simple Subjunctive Probability.- 4.3. A Probability Algebra.- 4.4. Simple Subjunctive Probability and Simple Subjunctive Conditionals.- >4.5. Simple Indefinite Probabilities.- Notes.- IX. Dispositions.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Absolute Dispositions.- >3. Probabilistic Dispositions.- Notes.- >Index.