Project Risks

Those tasked with the planning and construction of infrastructure and development operations face an increasingly uncertain context in which they must address risks across a number of different fields. These range from the environmental and archaeological to the social, political and financial. As a consequence, the formal and informal practices of stakeholders often incorporate projections of risk and opportunity.

Project Risks analyzes this paradigm shift. It reviews the origin and nature of these uncertainties, and the practices implemented by the actors to mitigate or take advantage of them. Paradoxically, these practices generate new risks and power relations that are not compatible with the collaborative planning model. These paradoxes force the rethinking of practices such as project territorialization, risk taking in planning and the responsibility of actors, as well as the societal and political choices that must be made between the realization of projects and the protection of the environment.

Auteur
Genevieve Zembri-Mary is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Cergy-Pontoise (Greater Paris, France). Within the university?s MRTE research centre, her comparative research in urban studies focuses on uncertainty, risk in planning and project design.

Contenu

Introduction xi

Chapter 1. The Uncertain Environment of Project Planning and Production Process 1

1.1. A risk society? 1

1.2. Globalization and uncertainty 3

1.3. The recent economic and financial crisis context 4

1.3.1. Crisis and mobility practices 4

1.3.2. A wait-and-see demand from households 4

1.3.3. The volatility of business locations 5

1.3.4. The impact of the crisis on the phasing of infrastructure projects 6

1.3.5. Phasing and flexibility of urban projects 7

1.3.6. For more flexibility, the project can precede the plan 7

1.3.7. The use of private financing by publicprivate partnerships 8

1.4. Environmental uncertainty 16

1.5. The need for stakeholders in the decision-making process to have access to unlimited information 17

1.6. The difficulty of making reliable forecasts for planning development projects 22

1.7. Multi-scalar and multi-objective planning 23

1.8. Participatory decision-making process and unpredictability 25

1.9. The social, environmental, and economic performance of the companies that carry out the projects 26

1.10. Conclusion 27

Chapter 2. How Can We Define Uncertainties and Risks? Risk from a Theoretical Point of View 29

2.1. Risks, uncertainties, hazards: disciplinary definitions 29

2.1.1. The notions of risk, hazard, and vulnerability in geography 29

2.1.2. The notions of risk, uncertainty, and hazard in project management 31

2.1.3. The notions of risk and uncertainty in economics 34

2.1.4. How does the public or private project owner use the concepts of risk and uncertainty? 35

2.2. Territorialized risks 35

2.3. Risk chains in time and space 36

2.4. Expert risk and perceived risk 37

2.5. Risk and opportunity 38

2.6. Uncertainties, risks, and opportunities external to the project 39

2.6.1. Characteristics of events that may impact a project or its social, natural, or economic environment (according to experts) 40

2.6.2. Political risk and opportunity 41

2.6.3. Risk and social opportunities 42

2.6.4. The risk and opportunity related to the choices and behaviors of residents and the economic environment 44

2.6.5. Risk and regulatory opportunity 45

2.6.6. Archeological risk and heritage opportunity 45

2.6.7. Environmental risk 46

2.6.8. Technological risk 47

2.6.9. Natural risk 48

2.6.10. Market risk 49

2.6.11. The risk of force majeure 49

2.7. Internal project risks 50

2.7.1. Construction risk 50

2.7.2. The risk of delay 50

2.7.3. Financial risk 51

2.7.4. Commercial risk 52

2.8. Conclusion 52

Chapter 3. Diachronic Approach to Taking Risks and Uncertainties into Account in Planning, Consultation, Evaluation, Financing, and Project Implementation Practices 55

3.1. Introduction 55

3.2. From the 1970s to the end of the 1980s: only natural and technological risks were addressed by the texts 56

3.2.1. The legal framework for environmental assessment and public participation excluded the concepts of risk and uncertainty 56

3.2.2. Only the concepts of foreseeable natural risk and major accident risk were regulated during the 1980s 61

3.2.3. Risk management still not very formalized as standards 62

3.3. The 1990s: taking into account social uncertainty for major infrastructure projects (transport, energy, etc.) 64

3.3.1. From the late 1980s to the early 1990s: the (para)public project owner managed social uncertainty by increasing public information by keeping control over the design and implementation of the project 64

3.3.2. The 1992 Bianco circular and the 1995 Barnier law allowed the public to participate in the public debate but were not always applied 67

3.4. 1997 to present: financial risk, risk to the project environment, social uncertainty, political risk, and traffic risk are gradually being integrated into the assessment process 69 3.4.1. A progressive and formalized consideration of risks...