EU Enlargement and its Macroeconomic Effects in Eastern Europe

What will joining the EU mean for the new Eastern member states and their economies? This book offers a detailed study of the macroeconomic and structural adjustment burden. It envisages a real currency appreciation stemming from price convergence, capital inflows and weak structural change. The widespread belief that an Eastern enlargement of the Union would be overwhelmingly to the detriment of the present EU (budgetary costs, locational decisions, trade deficits) is rejected. The authors discuss the lack of competitiveness of Eastern countries and their need for structural adjustments (in the financial sector, in agriculture, and in manufacturing) in order for them to survive and thrive in their new economic environment.

Auteur

KLAUS FROHBERG Executive Director of the Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), Halle/Saale, Germany MONIKA HARTMANN Head of the Division of Agricultural Markets, Marketing and World Agricultural Trade at the Institute of Agricultural Development in Central And Eastern Europe (IAMO) in Halle/Saale, Germany JENS HÖLSCHER DAAD Senior Research Fellow and Co-ordinator of Economic Research, Institute for German Studies of the University of Birmingham KAZIMIERZ LASKI Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Linz, Austria CLAUDIA LÖHNIG Research Associate at the Leipzig Graduate School of Management LUCJAN ORLOWSKI Professor of Economics and International Finance at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield WITOLD ORLOWSKI Deputy Director of the Research Institute of the Central Statistical Office in Warsaw LEON PODKAMINER Vienna Institute for Comparative Economic Studies (WIIW) JOHANNES STEPHAN Research Fellow at the Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH)

Résumé
This book studies the macroeconomic and structural adjustment burdens for new Eastern European member countries of the European Union. The widespread belief that an Eastern enlargement of the EU would be overwhelmingly to the detriment of current members is rejected. The contributors discuss the lack of competitive-ness of Eastern countries and their need for structural adjustment (financial sector, agriculture, manufacturing). The main issues considered critically are the problem of price convergence in integrated markets, the positive approach to foreign capital inflows (including transfers and foreign direct investment), the problem of the current account deficit and the direction of structural change. In most contributions a comparative approach plays an important role. Many authors write with experience of the Southern enlargement of the EU. The book consists of a wide range of theoretical approaches - from rather supply-side-oriented to more demand-side ones - to offer a range of perspectives on how enlargement could affect the transition economies and the European Union as a whole.

Contenu

Acknowledgements Introduction Notes on Contributors to the Volume PART I: PRICE CONVERGENCE, DEMAND AND GROWTH Effects of Accession to the EU on Prices, Wages and Aggregate Demand in CEE Countries; H.Gabrisch Macroeconomic Problems of Trade Liberalisation and EU Eastern Enlargement; K.Laski Non-Tradable Goods and Deviations Between Purchasing Power Parities and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the 1990 European Comparison Project; L.Podkaminer PART II: EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMS, CAPITAL AND TRANSFER INFLOWS Real Exchange Rates and Growth After the EU Accession: the Problems of Transfer and Capital Inflow Absorption; W.M.Orlowski Capital Inflows and Convertibility in the Transforming Economies of Central Europe; L.T.Orlowski Exchange Rate Policy, Fiscal Austerity and Integration Prospects: The Hungarian Case; J.Hölscher and J.Stephan