Risk Assessment

A guide to the methodologies, typical mathematical notation, and assumptions used in risk assessment calculations

Risk Assessment describes the methodologies, the math, and assumptions needed in risk assessment calculations and explores the various statistical analysis procedures that are used for estimating the parameters employed in risk assessment approaches. The author--a noted expert in the field--outlines a logical step-by-step approach to assessment: Identify a hazard; Analyze the risk associated with that hazard; and Determine if the elimination, or control of the risk is warranted. The text puts the focus on assessing environmental risk and describes the basics used in hypothesis testing to determine when there are differences in environmental quality at various locations.

The author describes statistical techniques in approachable terms that are designed to be understandable to the non-statistician. The text downplays mathematical notation while offering clear explanations for the development of equations. It highlights applications with numerous examples of problems of censored data as they influence the use of alternative tests. In addition, the text focuses on both parametric and non-parametric procedures. This important resource:

• Describes in understandable terms the methodologies, typical mathematical notation, and assumptions used in risk assessment calculations

• Explores the fundamental calculation procedures and approaches for risk characterization

• Contains a wealth of example problems of interpretations of environmental monitoring results and shows how each procedure is used

• Includes problems at the end of each chapter that stress the fundamental concepts outlined

Written for senior undergraduate and graduate students and as a course text in engineering, Risk Assessment offers a guide to the fundamental calculation procedures and methodologies for characterizing risk in clear and accessible terms.

Auteur

Edward A. McBean, PHD, is a Professor of Water Resources, Canada Research Chair in Water Supply Security in the School of Engineering at the University of Guelph. Dr. McBean is also University of Guelph Leadership Chair Professor.

Texte du rabat
A GUIDE TO THE METHODOLOGIES, TYPICAL MATHEMATICAL NOTATION, AND ASSUMPTIONS USED IN RISK ASSESSMENT CALCULATIONS Risk Assessment describes the methodologies, the math, and assumptions needed in risk assessment calculations and explores the various statistical analysis procedures that are used for estimating the parameters employed in risk assessment approaches. The authora noted expert in the fieldoutlines a logical step-by-step approach to assessment: Identify a hazard; Analyze the risk associated with that hazard; and Determine if the elimination, or control of the risk is warranted. The text puts the focus on assessing environmental risk and describes the basics used in hypothesis testing to determine when there are differences in environmental quality at various locations. The author describes statistical techniques in approachable terms that are designed to be understandable to the non-statistician. The text downplays mathematical notation while offering clear explanations for the development of equations. It highlights applications with numerous examples of problems of censored data as they influence the use of alternative tests. In addition, the text focuses on both parametric and non-parametric procedures. This important resource:

• Describes in understandable terms the methodologies, typical mathematical notation, and assumptions used in risk assessment calculations
• Explores the fundamental calculation procedures and approaches for risk characterization
• Contains a wealth of example problems of interpretations of environmental monitoring results and shows how each procedure is used
• Includes problems at the end of each chapter that stress the fundamental concepts outlined Written for senior undergraduate and graduate students and as a course text in engineering, Risk Assessment offers a guide to the fundamental calculation procedures and methodologies for characterizing risk in clear and accessible terms.

Contenu
Preface xi

Author of the Book xiii

Acknowledgments xv

About the Companion Website xvii

1 Background to Risk Assessment and Management 1

1.1 The Case for Risk Assessment, Leading to Risk Management 1

1.2 The Need for Risk Quantification 3

1.3 Environmental Risk 5

1.4 A Measure of Quantifying Risk: Loss of Life Expectancy 5

1.5 Reliance on Environmental Data 6

1.5.1 Characteristics of Data 6

1.5.2 Indications of the Sources of Variability in Environmental Data 7

1.5.3 Independence of Successive Data Values 8

1.5.4 Uncertainties and Errors in Environmental Quality Data 9

1.6 Some Summary Indications of Approaches for Statistical Analyses 11

1.7 Overview of Book Content 12

1.8 References 12

1.9 Problems 13

Part I Methodologies for Risk Characterization 15

2 Introduction to Risk Assessment 17

2.1 Challenges in Risk Assessment 17

2.2 Categories of Risk 19

2.3 De Minimis Risk 20

2.4 Toxicological Versus Epidemiological Data 22

2.5 Basics of Environmental Risk Assessment 23

2.6 Estimating Intake (Dose) 24

2.7 Calculating the Risk for Noncarcinogens 26

2.8 Calculating Risks for Carcinogens 31

2.8.1 Background to Classification System for Carcinogens 31

2.8.2 Calculating Risk from Carcinogens 31

2.8.3 Generalization to Allow Quantification of Exposure Assessment for Other Scenarios 35

2.8.3.1 Construction/Utility Worker 36

2.9 Ecological Risk Assessment 43

2.10 Issues of Uncertainties in Risk 48

2.11 References 48

2.12 Problems 49

3 Factors Influencing the Assessment and Management of Risk 55

3.1 Background for Some of the Issues Influencing Risk Assessment and Management 55

3.2 Issues of Perception Versus Reality in Risk Assessment 55

3.2.1 Influential Roles of the Public 55

3.2.2 Differences in Risk Characterization: Public Perception Versus the Reality of Risk 56

3.2.3 Characteristics of Risk Which Influence Risk Perception 60

3.2.3.1 People's Behavior 61

3.2.4 Magnitudes and Consequences of Risk Influence People's Willingness to Accept Risk 61

3.2.5 Examples of Trade?]Offs Between Contributing Factors 62

3.2.5.1 Underestimation of Risk 63

3.2.5.2 The Influence of Voluntary and Involuntary Aspects of Risks 65

3.2.5.3 Dreadfulness of the Outcome 65

3.2.5.4 Visibility of the Hazard 65

3.2.5.5 Media Influences on Perception of Risks 65

3.3 Qualitative Risk Characterization and ProbabilityImpact Matrix Procedures 66

3.3.1 Introduction to ProbabilityImpact Matrix Procedures 66

3.3.2 Issues with the Risk Matrix Approach 69

3.4 Microbial Risk Assessment 69

3.5 References 74

3.6 Problems 75

4 Characteristics of Environmental Quality Data 79

4.1 Background to Data 79

4.2 Characteristics of Environmental Quality Data 80

4.2.1 Indications of the Sources of Variability in Environmental Data 80

4.2.2 Independence of Successive Data Values 81

4.2.3 Uncertainties and Errors in Environmental Quality Data 82

4.3 Some Summary Indications of Approaches for Statistical Analyses 84

4.4 Samples and Populations 85

4.5 Probability and Statistics 86

4.6 Graphical Data Descriptors 86

4.6.1 Histograms of Data 87

4.6.2 Probability Density Functions 87

4.6.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions 89

4.7 Summary Measures of the Distribution of Data 91

4.7.1 Measures of Central Tendency 91

4.7.2 Measures of the Dispersion of Data: Variance, Standard Deviation, and Range 94

4.7.3 Skewness 97

4.7.4 Kurtosis 98

4.7.5 Some Summary Comments 99

4.8 Further Summary Measures of the Distribution of Data 100 4.8.1 Coefficient of Variati...