Future Babble

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200, a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe, we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future - everythng from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Préface
Bestselling author of Risk, Dan Gardner returns with a fascinating and accessible book exploring the psychology of our obsession with the future

Auteur

Dan Gardner is the bestselling author of Risk as well as a columnist and senior writer for the Ottawa Citizen. Trained in history and law, Gardner worked in politics as a senior policy adviser before turning to journalism. His writing has received numerous awards, including the National Newspaper Award and Amnesty International's Media Award. He lives in Ottawa with his wife and two children.

Résumé
Meet Jim Haskin. He's forty years old. He's worth around thirty-five million. He runs his own San Francisco ad firm, American Weather. AmWe's image is green and forward-looking: if your product is upcycled, or hydro or vegan, they'll make you an ad. However, behind the scenes, Jim supports the old captains of American industry: bleach, beer, guns. One day Jim is asked to come up with something extra-special. The scheme he devises brings together a Death Row inmate, pay-per-view television, and most of America's largest corporations. Everything is set for it to be his greatest achievement yet.