Complex Decision Making

The increasingly complex environment of today's world, characterized by technological innovation and global communication, generates myriads of possible and actual interactions while limited physical and intellectual resources severely impinge on decision makers, be it in the public or private domains.

At the core of the decision-making process is the need for quality information that allows the decision maker to better assess the impact of decisions in terms of outcomes, nonlinear feedback processes and time delays on the performance of the complex system invoked.

This volume is a timely review on the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic envrionments and of the various modeling approaches used. The book consists of five parts, each composed of several chapters:

I: Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories and Empirical Evidence

II: Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Environments and Systems

III: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling

IV: Methodological Issues

V: Future Directions

Texte du rabat

Today's ever more complex world creates challenges for decision makers. This volume reviews the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic environments, and the various modeling approaches. Beginning with a discussion of the underlying concepts, theories and empirical evidence, the book gives you a range of practical tools and techniques for decision making in complex environments and systems.

Contenu

Complex Decision Making Concepts, Theories, and Empirical Evidence.- How to Improve Dynamic Decision Making? Practice and Promise.- Expertise and Dynamic Tasks.- Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Systems.- Dynamic Handling of Uncertainty for Decision Making.- Using System Dynamics and Multiple Objective Optimization to Support Policy Analysis for Complex Systems.- Creation of Hydroelectric System Scheduling by Simulation.- Complex Decision Making using Non-Parametric Data Envelopment Analysis.- Using Group Model Building to Inform Public Policy Making and Implementation.- Agents First! Using Agent-based Simulation to Identify and Quantify Macro Structures.- System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling in Action.- Influencing and Interpreting Health and Social Care Policy in the UK.- System Dynamics Advances Strategic Economic Transition Planning in a Developing Nation.- Saving a Valley: Systemic Decision-making Based onQualitative and Quantitative System Dynamics.- Building Long-Term Manufacturer-Retailer Relationships through Strategic Human Resource Management Policies: A System Dynamics Approach.- Diffusion and Social Networks: Revisiting Medical Innovation with Agents.- Methodological Issues in Research on Complex Decision Making.- Measuring Change in Mental Models of Complex Dynamic Systems.- A Comprehensive Model of Goal Dynamics in Organizations: Setting, Evaluation and Revision.- Future Directions on Complex Decision Making.- Future Directions on Complex Decision Making Using Modeling and Simulation Decision Support.