Climatic Change: Implications for the Hydrological Cycle and for Water Management

year simulations in order to separate noise in the system from the climate change signal. Several contributing papers focused on case studies using Regional Climate Models (RCMs) linked to hydrological models, applied to the analysis of runoff under conditions of convective activity and extreme precipitation, in regions of complex topography, or stakeholder-driven investigations such as water runoff simulations in Quebec undertaken for a major utility. Thorough analyses of GCM results for the Century were reported at the Workshop, in order to illustrate the improvements in model results which have taken place in recent years, and the increasing confidence with which the models can be used for projecting climatic change in coming decades. However, there is still much room for improvement; there is also a need to address more fully the manner in which climate and impacts models (e. g. , hydrological models) can be linked, in terms of consistency and the overlap between different scales, the underlying physical assumptions, and the parameterizations used. Session 2 was devoted to the two extremes of water resources, namely floods and droughts, the focus here being to identify the climate change component in river floods. These have significant economic implications, as was shown by several scientists from Western and Central Europe. Many long time series have been studied worldwide with the aim of detection of nonstationarities, yet there is no conclusive evidence of climate-related changes in flow records, in general.

Contenu

List of contributors. Preface; M. Beniston, et al. Changes in the mean and extremes of the hydrological cycle in Europe under enhanced greenhouse gas conditions in a global time-slice experiment; W. May, et al. Investigation of the hydrologic cycle stimulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model over the Québec/Labrador territory; A. Frigon, et al. Major influences on precipitation in the Canary Islands; D. Gallego Puyol, et al. High resolution simulations of precipitation over the Alps with the perspective of coupling to hydrological models; O. Brasseur, et al. Heavy precipitation occurrence in Scandinavia investigated with a Regional Climate Model; O. Bøssing Christensen, et al. Testing of NAO and ENSO signals in the precipitation field in Europe; C. Mares, et al. Water vapor vertical profile by Raman lidar in the free troposphere from the Jungfraujoch Alpine Station; I. Balin, et al. A qualitative assessment of the sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment studies; D. Viner. The GLOWA Volta project: Integrated assessment of feedback mechanisms between climate, landuse, and hydrology; N. van de Giesen, et al. Glowa Danube: A research concept to develop integrative techniques, scenarios and strategies regarding global changes of the water cycle; W. Mauser, R. Ludwig. Climate change and water resources in Sweden - analysis of uncertainties; M. Gardelin, et al. Hydrological cycle changes in China's large river basin: The Yellow River drained dry; C. Liu, H. Zheng. Floods in the context of climate change and variability; Z.W. Kundzewicz. Climate change impacts on river flooding: A modelling study of three meso-scale catchments; L. Menzel, et al. Impact of climate change and higher CO2 on hydrological processes and crop productivity in the state ofBrandenburg, Germany; V. Krysanova, F. Wechsung. Local climate and water availability changes due to landscape modifications: A numerical experiment in Southeastern Spain; N. Hasler, et al. Trends in drought in Swiss forested ecosystems; B. Zierl, H. Lischke. Feedback between structured vegetation and soil water in a changing climate: A simulation study; H. Lischke, B. Zierl. Water control and property rights: An analysis of the Middle Eastern situation; U. Luterbacher, E. Wiegandt. Exploratory economic assessments of climate change impacts in Israel: Agriculture; M. Shechter, N. Yehoshua. Changing climate and increasing costs &endash; Implications for liability and insurance; L.M. Bouwer, P. Vellinga. Scenario analyses in global change assessment for water management in the lower Rhine delta; H. Middelkoop, et al. Climate change and water resources in an arid continent: Managing uncertainty and risk in Australia; R.N. Jones, A.B. Pittock.