China 2020

This book presents eight separate essays and provides the reader with a unique perspective and objective judgement of where China will stand by the end of the current decade. It is suitable reading for foreign policy practitioners, academics and anyone interested in one of the world's fastest-developing countries. The eight essays cover the following topics: China's internal politics; China's military; China's economy; China's international image and its international relations; China's legal development and China's western regional development plans. China 2020 assesses where these issues stand today and highlights their likely trajectory over the following decade. A unique feature of this book is that it looks in particular at the policy impact, both for China and other countries, and all the most and least likely outcomes for China's development in these areas.

• Concentrates on the practical policy impacts and the expected outcomes each of the above areas will have
• Deals with issues like the opening up of China's undeveloped western area. A subject with little coverage in other mainstream books on China
• Takes a short to mid-term view of China's development, so that the period is highly definable and the contours of what might happen are already clear

Contenu

Chapter 1: China in 2020: the leadership and the Party

The background

A learning-oriented Marxist party

Intra-Party democracy

The transition

The posts

Chapter 2: China 2020: international relations

The current parameters of China's foreign policy

A China that can say no but is still unhappy

The elephant in the room: the US will always be number one

The world beyond the US

The two big problems: Taiwan and North Korea

China as an international player by 2020

International China in the coming decade - the two paths

A Beijing model

The key factor: what happens within

Chapter 3: The Chinese economy in the next decade

Forecasting China

The Chinese state

Politics, policy and the state

China and the global economy

The financial sector

Inequality and consumption

Demography

Urbanisation

Conclusion

Chapter 4: China's military in 2020

Introduction: robust economy

Arms embargoes

Combat experience

Confidence and change

PLA: the armed wing of the Party

The PLA ground forces

The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF)

The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)

The Second Artillery Corps (SAC)

The People's Armed Police (PAP)

Cyber warfare

Strategic implications

Force projection

Defence in depth

Policy implications

Conclusion

Chapter 5: China's environment in 2020

Economy

Resource constraints

International climate talks

Energy and renewable power

Waste and pollution

Food

Biodiversity

Politics

Chapter 6: China's western regions 2020: their national and global implications

What are China's western regions?

Issues raised by the western regions

Development and Develop the West

Economic growth and human development in the western regions

Western regions in global perspective

Chongqing and Chengdu - growth pole(s) for the western regions?

Prospects to 2020 and policy implications

Chapter 7: China's rule of law

Chinese and foreigners

Asian values and the law

Development of law in China in modern history

The constitution

Elements of the legal system in China

The judiciary

The legislative system

Law versus the state in China

Human and civil rights

New developments influencing law in China

Chongqing mafia trials

BMW case

Conclusion

Policy approaches

Chapter 8: China's 'soft power' development by 2020

'Soft power' in Chinese discourse

China's tools of soft power

Beijing's objectives

The domestic priority

Challenges ahead

Weaknesses in China's soft power currency

China's soft power in 2020

Conclusion

Index