Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence

This book brings together a diverse range of findings on current and emerging business concerns when the authors were developing a series of 12 working Analytic Research Consortium (ARC) White Papers. It presents several, differently configured scenarios, drawing on cyber as an example; the use and further optimization of estimative/probabilistic language; communicating analytical insights and other findings concerning '(un)certainty' to decision-maker end-users; and mitigating risk. It also evaluates in detail today's rapidly evolving Gen-AI systems and technologies, e.g. those underlying OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Bard/Gemini. This includes their respective value concerning scenario development and other business-relevant methods, tools and techniques, e.g. 'Red Teaming'. The topics discussed are assessed using the multi-methodologies of, firstly, 'Intelligence Engineering' (IE) and, secondly, 'Strategic Options Analysis' (SOA). The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process, including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities.

The book is a valuable read for a diverse readership from the public and private sectors, spanning government, the military, law enforcement, education, industry, commerce, retail, and enterprises of all sizes. Also, students at business schools and high-level decision-makers, including politicians, military commanders, and C-Suite leaders in various fields, will benefit from it.

Auteur

Bruce Garvey, MBA, PhD, advises and consults organisations facing high levels of uncertainty. He addresses decision behaviour pertaining to foresight, creativity and innovation, scenario planning, and systems uncertainties. He has 40 years' experience within the commercial arena, in staff and operational posts in the UK, Europe and the Middle East. He has published books and papers and made presentations covering the Uncertainty domain.

Adam D.M. Svendsen, PhD, is an established international intelligence and defence strategist, educator (Salamanca and Georgetown), researcher, analyst, adviser and consultant. Multi-sector experienced to a senior level, over the years his research and educator work has been pursued across Europe, Scandinavia, North America and Canada. He has authored several publications, such as numerous articles, chapters, policy & strategy briefs, and four books.