Application of Frequency and Risk in Water Resources

Floods constitute a persistent and serious problem throughout the United States and many other parts of the world. They are responsible for losses amounting to billions of dollars and scores of deaths annually. Virtually all parts of the nation--coastal, moun­ tainous and rural--are affected by them. Two aspects of the problem of flooding that have long been topics of scientific inquiry are flood frequency and risk analyses. Many new, even improved, tech­ niques have recently been developed for performing these analyses. Nevertheless, actual experience points out that the frequency of say a IOO-year flood, in lieu of being encountered on the average once in one hundred years, may be as little as once in 25 years. It is therefore appropriate to pause and ask where we are, where we are going and where we ought to be going with regard to the technology of flood frequency and risk analyses. One way to address these ques­ tions is to provide a forum where people from all quarters of the world can assemble, discuss and share their experience and expertise pertaining to flood frequency and risk analyses. This is what con­ stituted the motivation for organizing the International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses held May 14-17, 1986, at Louisiana State Universj. ty, Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Contenu

Section 1 Flood Characteristics.- Research Needs on Flood Characteristics.- Application of Probable Maximum Flood Estimates to the Design of Water Resource Development Projects.- Heavy Rain Storm Floods in China and their Estimation.- Section 2 Design Flood.- The Bayesian Framework for Inference in Flood Frequency Analysis.- Development of Design Procedures for Extreme Floods in Australia.- Design Flood for Canafisto Dam.- The Experiences of Design Flood of Reservoirs in Medium and Small Basins by the Method of Design Storm.- Estimation of Design Flood.- Design Flood Estimation for Narmada Sagar Project Using Partial Duration Series - A Case Study.- Design Flood Computation with Limited Data - Case Study of a Reservoir in Subernrekha River Basin.- Section 3 Errors and Outliers.- Confidence Intervals for Design Flood Events under Different Statistical Flood Models.- Use of Additional Historical Information for Estimation and Goodness of Fit of Flood Frequency Models.- Extrapolation Error in Flood Frequency Analysis.- Effect of Discharge Measurement Error on the Results of Flood Frequency Analysis.- Some Researches on Determination of Return Period for Historical Flood in Analysis of Flood Frequency.- Section 4 Design of Water Resources Projects.- Potential and Application of Flood Frequency Determinations.- Flood Analyses Pertaining to Design of Nuclear Power Plants.- Some Applications of Flood Frequency and Risk Information in Forest Management.- Section 5 Risk and Reliability in Water Resources Projects.- Reviews of Advances in Risk and Reliability Analysis for Hydraulic Structures.- Flood Risk Evaluation of Urban Rivers with Standard Equi-Risk Lines.- The Evaluation of Financial Risk.- Uncertainties in Flood Plain Mapping.- Project Risk Considering Sampling Uncertainties and a Finite Project Operation Period.- Optimal Planning of Flood Control Systems Based on Risk Analyses of Flood Inundation.- Application of System Reliability Analysis to Flood Forecasting.- Section 6 Flood Damage Assessment.- A Stochastic Approach to Flood Damage Estimation.- Flood Hazard Assessment on Alluvial Fans: An Examination of the Methodology.- Flood Damage - Frequency Analysis of an Urbanizing Watershed.- Flood Risk Bias Analysed through a Multi-State Flood Insurance Model.- Section 7 Federal Practice of Frequency and Risk Analyses.- Corps of Engineers Procedures for Evaluating and Modifying Existing Dams to Safely Accommodate the Current Inflow Design Flood.- Bureau of Reclamation Use of Risk Analysis.- TVA Practice in Flood Frequency and Risk Analysis.- Nuclear Regulatory Commission Use of Flood Risk Analyses.- Flood Risk Analysis for the National Flood Insurance Program.- The National Weather Service Role in Flood Frequency and Risk Analysis.- The Role of Flood-Frequency Analysis in the U.S. Geological Survey.- Some Remarks on Practice of Flood Frequency and Risk Analysis by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.- Author Index.