Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States

A landmark study in terms of its breadth and depth of coverage, this book provides the most comprehensive, and understandable, analysis to date about climate and its effects on the people and landscapes of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah-including the U.S.-Mexico border region and the lands of Native Nations.

Auteur

Gregg Garfin is Deputy Director for Science Translation & Outreach, Institute of the Environment at the University of Arizona. He is a co-investigator and former Project Manager with the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, a NOAA-funded integrated assessment designed to identify and evaluate climate impacts on human and natural systems in the Southwest.

Contenu

Acknowledgements

Abbreviations and Acronyms

Chapter 1: Summary for Decision Makers

1.1 Introduction

1.2 Observed Recent Climatic Change in the Southwest

1.3 Projected Future Climatic Change in the Southwest

1.4 Recent and Future Effects of Climatic Change in the Southwest

Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems

Coastal systems

Water

Human health

Additional effects of climate change

1.5 Choices for Adjusting to Climate and Climate Change

1.6 Key Unknowns

References

CONTEXT

Chapter 2: Overview

2.1 Introduction

What is an assessment?

2.2 Context and Scope

2.3 Other Southwest Region Climate Assessments

2.4 Sponsors and Authors of this Report

2.5 Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty

2.6 Accountability and Review

2.7 Organization of This Report

References

Chapter 3: The Changing Southwest

3.1 Lay of the Land: Geographical Themes and Features

Natural features

Human geography

Public lands

Population

Natural resource economy

3.2 Land Use and Land Cover

Trends for urban and exurban development

References

Appendix

WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWEST

Chapter 4: Present Weather and Climate: Average Conditions

4.1 Introduction

4.2 General Climate Characteristics

Surface-air temperature

Precipitation

Snowfall, snowpack, and water resources

4.3 Major Climate and Weather Events

Drought

Winter storms

Floods

Thunderstorms

Temperature extremes

Air quality

4.4 Climate Variability

References

Chapter 5: Present Weather and Climate: Evolving Conditions

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Climate of the First Decade of the Twenty-first Century

5.3 Climate Trends for 1901-2010

5.4 Extreme Weather Variability During 1901-2010

5.5 Summertime Drought During 1901-2010

5.6 Hydroclimatic Variability During 1901-2010

5.7 Paleoclimate of the Southwest United States

Paleotemperature

Paleodrought

Paleo streamflow

5.8 Future Monitoring and Science Needs

References

Appendix

Chapter 6: Future Climate: Projected Average

6.1 Global Climate Models: Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling

6.2 Climate Scenarios

6.3 Data Sources

6.4 Temperature Projections

6.5 Projections of Other Temperature Variables

6.6 Precipitation Projections

6.7 Atmospheric Circulation Changes

6.8 North American Monsoon

6.9 Changes in Precipitation-related Measures

References

Chapter 7: Future Climate: Projected Extremes

7.1 Introduction

7.2. Heat Waves

Heat wave index

Projections

7.3 Wintertime Cold Outbreaks

7.4 Precipitation

General results and key uncertainties

North American monsoon (NAM)

Atmospheric rivers

Hail on the Colorado Front Range

7.5 Surface Hydrology

Flooding

Drought

7.6 Fire Weather

Santa Ana winds

7.7 Discussion and Key Uncertainties

Irreversible changes and tipping points

References

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST

Chapter 8: Natural Ecosystems

8.1 Introduction: Climate, Climate Change, and Ecosystems of the Southwest

8.2 Phenology and Species Interactions

Phenology and interactions among species in terrestrial systems

Interactions in freshwater systems

8.3 Southwestern Deserts

8.4 Southwestern Forests

Temperature, precipitation, and pests and pathogens

Fire

References

Chapter 9: Coastal Issues

9.1 Coastal Assets

9.2 Observed Threats

Overview

Threats to the physical environment

Threats to the built environment

9.3 Ocean and Coastal Impacts to Ecosystems

Overview

Sea-level rise

Changes in ocean temperature and dynamics

Ocean acidification

9.4 Coastal Impacts to Communities

Overview

Airport infrastructure

Vehicular transportation infrastructure

Economy, culture, and identity

9.5 Managing Coastal Climate Risks

Overview

Level of preparedness and engagement in adaptation planning

Barriers to adaptation

References

Appendix

Chapter 10: Water: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation

10.1 Introduction

10.2 Physical Changes to the Water Cycle

10.3 Human and Natural Systems Impacts, Risks and Vulnerabilities

10.4 Water Sector Adaptation Activities

10.5 Planning Techniques and Stationarity

10.6 Potential Supply and Demand Strategies and Solutions

10.7 Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation

10.8 Federal Adaptation Initiatives

10.9 SECURE Water Act Overview

10.10 Western States Federal Agency Support Team (WestFAST)

10.11 Climate Change and Water Working Group (CCAWWG)

10.12 State Adaptation Efforts

10.13 Regional and Municipal Adaptation Efforts

References

Chapter 11: Agriculture and Ranching

11.1 Distinctive Features of Southwestern Agriculture

11.2 Implications for Specialty Crops

11.3 On-farm Water Management

11.4 System-wide Water Management: Lessons from Programming Models of Water Allocation

Sustained drought in California

Water availability and crop yields in California

Effects of adaptation measures in California

Economic and land-use projections in California

Agriculture in Nevada's Great Basin

Water transfers in Rio Grande Basin

Severe drought in Rio Grande Basin

Drought and Arizona's agriculture

Reduced water supplies across the Southwest

Lessons from simulation studies

11.5 Ranching Adaptations to Multi-year Drought

11.6 Disaster Relief Programs and Climate Adaptation

References

Chapter 12: Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts

12.1 Introduction

12.2 Energy in the Southwest: Past and Present

12.3 Potential Climate Impacts on Energy

Climate-induced impacts to peak and annual electricity demand

Vulnerability of electricity generation to climate impacts

Vulnerability of electricity distribution to climate impacts

Vulnerability of infrastructure to indirect climate impacts

Climate impacts on renewable source intensity

Evolution of the energy sector

Climate impacts on primary energy production

Cost of climate change

References

Chapter 13: Urban Areas

13.1 Cities in the Southwest

Observed changes in climatic trends in major cities in the Southwest

Urban processes that contribute to climate change

Government characteristics of large metropolitan regions in the Southwest

Southwest cities as distinctive federal creations

13.2 Pathways Through which Climate Change Will Affect Cities in the Southwest

Fire hazards

The built environment

Climate change and urban water

13.3 Critical Missing Data and Monitoring in Cities

References

Chapter 14: Transportation

14.1 Introduction

14.2 Passenger Transportation Trends in the Southwest

14.3 Freight Movement in the Southwest

14.4 Impacts of Climate Change

Direct impacts

Indirect impacts

14.5 Major Vulnerabilities and Uncertainties

Disruptions to the transportation system

References

Chapter 15: Human Health

15.1 Introduction

15.2 Current Climate-Related Health Concerns in the Southwest

Air quality

Heat extremes

Wildfires

Permissive ecology

15.3 Climate Change and Potential Health Implications

Emissions and air pollution

Increases in extr…