Let the Evidence Speak

This book presents the most important ideas behind Bayes' Rule in a form suitable for the general reader. It is written without formulae because they are not necessary; the ability to add and multiply is all that is needed. As well as showing in full the application of Bayes' Rule to some quantitatively simple, though not trivial, examples, the book also convincingly demonstrates that some familiarity with Bayes' Rule is helpful in thinking about how best to structure one's thinking.

Auteur

Alan Jessop holds degrees in Civil Engineering and Computer Science. Before his current position as MBA Director at the Business School in Durham, UK, he worked as a transport planner in local government and as a consultant. Primarily teaching MBA students, he has lectured at the University of Westminster, UK, the University of Warwick, UK and at the European Business School near Frankfurt, Germany. Jessop's research focuses on multi-attribute decision-making and design patterns.

Contenu

Introduction

Section A. Likelihood

1. Whose car?

2. Bayes' Rule

3. Track Record

4. Game Show

5. Margin of error

6. Five thoughts about likelihoods Section B. Base rate

7. Diagnosis

8. Information

9. Being careful about base rates

10. Independence

11. Review

Section C. Application

12. Who Wrote That?

13. Wood, Trees and Wildlife

14. Radiocarbon dating

15. Bayes and the Law

16. The Selection Task

Conclusion

A formula for Bayes' Rule

Notes