Household and Living Arrangement Projections

This book and its associated software address forecasts of households, elderly living arrangements and health services needs and costs, housing, and other related consumptions and services at national, state and sub-state levels.

This book presents an innovative demographic toolkit known as the ProFamy extended cohort-component method for the projection of household structures and living arrangements with empirical applications to the United States, the largest developed country, and China, the largest developing country. The ProFamy method uses demographic rates as inputs to project detailed distributions of household types and sizes, living arrangements of all household members, and population by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and urban/rural residence at national, sub-national, or small area levels. It can also project elderly care needs and costs, pension deficits, and household consumption. The ProFamy method presented herein has substantial merits compared to the traditional headship rate method, which is not linked to demographic rates and projects limited household types without other household members than "heads".The book consists of four parts. The first part presents the methodology, data, estimation issues, and empirical assessments. The next parts present applications in the United States (part two) and China (part three), concerning demographic, social, economic, and business research; policy analysis, including forecasting future trends of household type/size, elderly living arrangements, disability, and home-based care costs, and household consumption including housing and vehicles. The fourth part includes a user's guide for the ProFamy software to project households, living arrangements, and home-based consumptions.This book offers an invaluable toolkit for researchers, analysts and students in academic, public and private businesses, whose work is related to levels and rates of change in households, population and consumption patterns.

Presents an innovative demographic forecasting method that helps to make detailed household, living arrangement and population projections at the national, sub-national or small area levels Features applications in the United States and China to demographic, social, economic, and business research/policy analysis Offers an invaluable tool kit

Contenu

Preface.- Acknowledgement.- Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION.- Part I: METHODOLOGY, DATA, AND ASSESSMENTS.: CHAPTER 2 PROFAMY: THE EXTENDED COHORT-COMPONENT METHOD FOR HOUSEHOLD AND LIVING ARRANGEMENT PROJECTIONS.- Chapter 3 DATA NEEDS AND ESTIMATION PROCEDURES.- Chapter 4 EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENTS AND A COMPARISON WITH THE HEADSHIP RATE METHOD.- Chapter 5 EXTENSION OF ProFamy MODEL TO PROJECT ELDERLY DISABILITY STATUS AND HOME-BASED CARE COSTS, WITH AN ILLUSTRATIVE APPLICATION.- Chapter 6 HOUSEHOLD AND LIVING ARRANGEMENT PROJECTIONS AT THE SMALL AREA LEVEL.- Chapter 7 A SIMPLE METHOD FOR PROJECTING PENSION DEFICIT RATES AND AN ILLUSTRATIVE APPLICATION.- Part II: APPLICATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: Chapter 8 U.S. FAMILY HOUSEHOLD MOMENTUM AND DYNAMICS: PROJECTIONS AT THE NATONAL LEVEL.- Chapter 9 HOUSEHOLD AND LIVING ARRANGEMENT PROJECTIONS FOR THE 50 STATES, WASHINGTON DC, AND RELATIVELY LARGE COUNTIES IN THE U.S..- Chapter 10 EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN HOUSEHOLD STRUCTURE AND LIVING ARRANGEMENTS ON FUTURE HOME-BASED CARE COSTS FOR DISABLED ELDERS IN THE UNITED STATES.- Chapter 11 PROJECTIONS OF HOUSEHOLD VEHICLE CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES.- Part III: APPLICATIONS IN CHINA.: Chapter 12 HOUSEHOLD AND LIVING ARRANGEMENT PROJECTIONS IN CHINA AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL.- Chapter 13 DYNAMICS OF HOUSEHOLDS AND LIVING ARRANGEMENTS IN THE EASTERN, MIDDLE, AND WESTERN REGIONS OF CHINA.- Chapter 14 APPLICATION OF HOUSEHOLD AND LIVING ARRANGEMENT PROJECTIONS TO POLICY ANALYSIS IN CHINA.- Chapter 15 HOUSEHOLD HOUSING DEMAND PROJECTIONS FOR HEBEI PROVINCE OF CHINA .- Part IV: PROFAMY (VERSION2.1): A SOFTWARE FOR HOUSEHOLD AND CONSUMPTION FORECASTING: USER'S GUIDE.- Chapter 16 SETTING UP THE PROJECTION MODEL.- Chapter 17 PREPARING INPUT DATA, COMPUTING, AND MANAGING OUTPUT.- Chapter 18 EPILOGUE: SUMMARY AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVES.