Potential Yields of Major Crops for Chinese and Global Food Security Under Climate Change

This book analyzes potential yields of six major food crops - rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed worldwide using both qualitative and quantitative approaches to study both China's and global food security under climate change.
Firstly, it reviews previous studies on potential yields of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed worldwide to provide a detailed information of studying on China's and global food security based on the product's supply and demand of these crops.
Secondly, average and top (national) yields of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed since 1961 on global scale are employed to analyze their temporal and spatial variation trends and potential limits.
Thirdly, the effects of global warming in climate change on both average and top yields of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed since 1961 at global level are analyzed using regression model, and their differences between average and top yields among these crops are identified and compared.
Fourthly, the yields and per capita quantity of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed in major producer-countries and the world are analyzed to assess the situation and trend of international trade for the products of these crops, respectively.
Fifthly, potential yields of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed worldwide by 2030 are projected using both trend-regressed models and ARIMA models to estimate the per capita quantity of these crops based on the projection of world population and assess the status of Chinese and global food security in that future.
Finally, it provides policy implications and advice on food security for China and the world directing food production by 2030 under climate change.

Combines agricultural and economic expertise from an interdisciplinary standpoint toward analyzing Chinese Uses 'time series' models for estimating potential yields of major food crops worldwide Provides reference on the production of major food crops in the world challenged by continuous increase of population

Auteur

Prof. Cai Chengzhi received his Bachelor's degree in Agriculture from Guizhou University in Guiyang of China in 1987, MSc in Agriculture from Yunnan Agricultural University in Kunming of China in 2001, and PhD in Agriculture from China Agricultural University in Beijing of China in 2005. Since Dec. 2007, Prof. Cai has been working in Economic Institute, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics as senior researcher. Meanwhile, Prof. Cai was a visiting scholar at International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) in Austria in summer of 2004 and at Tor Vergata University in Italy in winter of 2012, respectively. Prof. Cai focuses on the research into potential yield of crop concerning food security. Since 1990 Prof. Cai has published over 60 peer-reviewed papers in Chinese and international journals and conferences. He is the focal point of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics as a member of Mountain Partnership Secretariat at Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations. Dr. Cao Wenfang received her Bachelor's degree in Economics from Jianghan University in Wuhan of China in 2013, MSc in Agroforestry Economic Management from Guizhou University in Guiyang of China in 2016, and PhD in Land-Environment-Agriculture and Forestry from University of Padova in Padova of Italy in 2020.

Texte du rabat

This book analyzes potential yields of six major food crops - rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed worldwide using both qualitative and quantitative approaches to study both Chinäs and global food security under climate change. Firstly, it reviews previous studies on potential yields of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed worldwide to provide a detailed information of studying on Chinäs and global food security based on the product s supply and demand of these crops. Secondly, average and top (national) yields of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed since 1961 on global scale are employed to analyze their temporal and spatial variation trends and potential limits. Thirdly, the effects of global warming in climate change on both average and top yields of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed since 1961 at global level are analyzed using regression model, and their differences between average and top yields among these crops are identified and compared. Fourthly, the yields and per capita quantity of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed in major producer-countries and the world are analyzed to assess the situation and trend of international trade for the products of these crops, respectively. Fifthly, potential yields of rice, wheat, maize, potato, soybean and rapeseed worldwide by 2030 are projected using both trend-regressed models and ARIMA models to estimate the per capita quantity of these crops based on the projection of world population and assess the status of Chinese and global food security in that future. Finally, it provides policy implications and advice on food security for China and the world directing food production by 2030 under climate change.

Contenu
Introduction.- Potential limits of six major food crops' yields worldwide.- Product's supply and demand of six major food crops in major producer-countries and the world.- Discussion and conclusions, policy implications and advice on Chinese and global food security, and future prospect.