The Use and Utility of Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy

Ultimata feature as a core concept in the coercive diplomacy scholarship. Conventional wisdom holds that pursuing an ultimatum strategy is risky. This book shows that the conventional wisdom is wrong on the basis of a new dataset of 87 ultimata issued from 19202020. It provides a historical examination of ultimata in Western strategic, political, and legal thought since antiquity until the present, and offers a four-pronged typology that explains their various purposes and effects: 1) the dictate, 2) the conditional war declaration, 3) the bluff, and 4) the brinkmanship ultimatum. The book yields a better understanding of interstate threat behaviour at a time of surging competition. Background materials can be consulted at www.coercivediplomacy.com.

Focuses on ultimata in the context of interstate coercion Combines political science, diplomatic history and strategic studies to understand strategic bargaining Presents a large evidentiary base based on ultimata issued between 1920 and 2020

Auteur

Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Senior Research Fellow at the Netherlands' War Studies Research Centre. He advises governments and international organisations and has published on international security, contemporary war, coercion, foresight, and defence planning.

Contenu
Chapter 1: The Use and Utility of Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy.- Chapter 2: A Genealogy of Ultimata.- Chapter 3: Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy.- Chapter 4: The Dataset: Data Collection and Coding Procedures.- Chapter 5: Ultimata 1920-2020: A Chronological Survey.- Chapter 6: Ultimata 1920-2020: Patterns and Findings.- Chapter 7: A Typology of Ultimata.- Chapter 8: The Dictate.- Chapter 9: The Conditional War Declaration.- Chapter 10: The Bluff.- Chapter 11: The Brinkmanship Ultimatum.- Chapter 12: Findings and Conclusions.