The Hype Cycle

Auteur

Arnold Schelsky is the pen name of a German scientist, applied mathematician, and philosopher, who focuses on political and social theory.  He lives in Stuttgart with his wife and children.

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The media and the politicians are always screaming at us
about horrifying, end-of-the-world threats, and also about miraculous new
technologies that will save us and transform our lives.  These are the two types of Hype—Fear Hype and
Hope Hype.  They work together to
befuddle our minds and keep us on edge.

Both forms of Hype, according to Arnold Schelsky are overblown, exaggerated to the nth degree, and scientifically
worthless. Climate change does not threaten us with extinction, machines can
never conspire against their human creators—and on the other hand, “global
governance” cannot solve any of our serious problems, while most of the
miraculous expectations for quantum physics are scientific nonsense.

AI is a focus of both types of Hype, with provably
false predictions that machines will be able to think and create, provably
false predictions that machines will replace employees causing mass
unemployment, and provably false predictions that machines can conceive
purposes or intentions hostile to humans.

Fear Hype
justifies the move toward a permanent state of emergency while Hope Hype
titillates us with wild dreams which can never be realized.

The political result is a system Schelsky calls “neo-feudalism.”  The
psychological result is a rapid oscillation between extreme, unwarranted Fear
and extreme, unwarranted expectations of salvation and bliss.

In the
life of any animal, overactivity is short-lived and restricted to emergency
situations. No living being can sustain overactivity for longer periods without
self-harm.  Hype is a form of toxic
overactivity of entire societies.  Today
the West is in an accelerated Hype Cycle, hyping ourselves from one peak of
excitement to the next.

Values
conducive to the Hype Cycle have been developing in the West since the
1920s.  Schelsky favors renewed
emphasis on pre-1920s values.

Arnold Schelsky lives in Germany and frequently visits the United States.  He is a medical doctor, scientist, and
entrepreneur, who now runs his own AI company and never exaggerates the merits
of his products.