Simulating Societal Change

This book presents a method for creating a working model of society, using data systems and simulation techniques, that can be used for testing propositions of scientific and policy nature. The model is based on the example of New Zealand, but will be applicable to other countries. It is expected that collaborators in other countries can emulate this example with their data systems for teaching and policy purposes, producing a cross-national "collaboratory". This enterprise will evolve with, and to a degree independently of, the book itself, with a supporting website as well as teaching and scientific initiatives. Readers of this text will, for the first time, have a simulation-based working model of society that can be interrogated for policy and substantive purposes. This book will appeal to researchers and professionals from various disciplines working within the social sciences, particularly on matters of demography and public policy.

Features a full-scale, realistic, working simulation model of society based on demographic and social information and transitioning through time Contains a comprehensive description of the construction of the working model, together with details of a novel open-source micro-simulation method that will facilitate transfer, application and learning across sites Includes worked examples of key policy and substantive questions tested with the simulation model against real data

Auteur
Peter Davis is Honorary Professor in the Department of Statistics and Emeritus Professor in Population Health and Social Science, at the University of Auckland. He was founding director of the COMPASS (Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences) Research Centre and recently completed a two-year James Cook Fellowship funded by the Royal Society of New Zealand. He has also held the position of Senior Editor (Health Policy) at Social Science and Medicine.Roy Lay-Yee is Senior Research Fellow at the COMPASS Research Centre, University of Auckland, New Zealand. His research interests include health services utilisation, use of official data, social simulation,ageing, social determinants and inequalities, and social connectedness.

Contenu
Chapter1. Introduction.- Chapter2. Conceptual and Analytical Foundations.- Chapter3. SociaLab. A Dynamic Microsimulation Model.- Chapter4. Tracking Societal Change Its Major Components.- Chapter5. Data Preparation.- Chapter6. Statistical Analysis.- Chapter7. Simulation.- Chapter8. The Seven Ages. A Framework for Social and Policy Issues.- Chapter9. Tracking Societal Change. Descriptive Results.- Chapter10. What If? Counterfactual Modelling with SociaLab.- Chapter11. Conclusion.