Regional Missile Defense from a Global Perspective

"The book provides an excellent review of missile defense that should be required reading for policymakers grappling with nuclear deterrence, proliferation, and missile defense. A policymaker should take the analysis in the book to shape policy countering regional threats, while also keeping capabilities below a threshold that does not drastically reduce nuclear deterrence."

Auteur
Catherine McArdle Kelleher is College Park Professor in the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland. Peter Dombrowski is Professor of Strategy in the Strategic Research Department at the U.S. Naval War College.

Résumé

Regional Missile Defense from a Global Perspective explains the origins, evolution, and implications of the regional approach to missile defense that has emerged since the presidency of George H. W. Bush, and has culminated with the missile defense decisions of President Barack Obama. The Obama administration's overarching concept for American missile defense focuses on developing both a national system of limited ground-based defenses, located in Alaska and California, intended to counter limited intercontinental threats, and regionally-based missile defenses consisting of mobile ground-based technologies like the Patriot PAC-3 system, and sea-based Aegis-equipped destroyer and cruisers.

The volume is intended to stimulate renewed debates in strategic studies and public policy circles over the contribution of regional and national missile defense to global security. Written from a range of perspectives by practitioners and academics, the book provides a rich source for understanding the technologies, history, diplomacy, and strategic implications of the gradual evolution of American missile defense plans. Experts and non-experts alikewhether needing to examine the offense-defense tradeoffs anew, to engage with a policy update, or to better understand the debate as it relates to a country or regionwill find this book invaluable. While it opens the door to the debates, however, it does not find or offer easy solutionsbecause they do not exist.

Contenu

Contents and AbstractsIntroduction chapter abstractMissile defense, and particularly regional missile defense, has returned to the spotlight after nearly a decade of relative obscurity. It has returned to the global policy agenda both because President Obama made regional missile defense a centerpiece of his national security strategy and because Russia's aggressive foreign policy toward Ukraine and elsewhere has soured its relations with Europe and the United States. The new hallmark of Obama's regional missile defense system, the European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) scheduled to be operational in 2020, has become a pawn in the larger game of resetting the West's relations with Russia. Current uncertainties about missile defense in the European context have global implications, however, because regional missile defense has been a centerpiece of U.S. strategic diplomacy since the middle of the George W. Bush administration. 1Addressing the Missile Threat: 1980-2008 chapter abstract This chapter discusses U.S. ballistic missile defense policies and programs through four administrations, from President Reagan through the second President Bush. That history has been one of major change-in basic strategy, military aims, threat definition, technological focus, funding, and U.S. and international political salience. National missile defense (NMD) efforts, aimed at countering strategic ballistic missiles, were particularly subject to dramatic fluctuations over the period. Programs grew or contracted, and were emphasized or terminated, depending on several different factors. Changes in the political environment surrounding NMD were undoubtedly due in large part to the scaled-down ambitions of U.S. NMD efforts. 2U.S. National Missile Defense Policy chapter abstract Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, every U.S. administration has articulated similar missile defense objectives: (1) The United States will defend its homeland from limited ballistic missile attacks, and (2) it will defend U.S. deployed forces from regional missile threats while also protecting our allies and partners. This continuity may seem unremarkable. But it stands in stark contrast to the Cold War, which saw the United States adopt almost every conceivable policy on ballistic missile defense (BMD), ranging from no policy to outright opposition to complete support to the qualified endorsement of limited defenses. It represents an equilibrium between three forces: external threats, domestic politics, and technological and financial realities. The first two forces have tended to put "upward pressure" on BMD programs. The scale of U.S. ambitions has, however, been kept in check by the cost and technical complexity of developing and deploying defenses. 3Theater Ballistic Missile Defense Concepts chapter abstract The Obama administration has adopted the Phased Adaptive Approach (PAA) to guide its deployment of defenses against theater-range ballistic missiles. Under this approach, the United States will deploy missile defense architectures tailored to the needs of specific regions and support the integration of U.S assets with allied resources. It will deploy these capabilities over time, taking advantage of improvements in its sensor and interceptor technologies. The phased approach will also allow the missile defense architectures to adapt vis-à-vis changes in an adversary's capabilities. With the PAA concept, regional ballistic missile defense (BMD) capabilities will combine with other U.S. military systems in extended deterrence architectures goals. As the United States and its allies deploy more capable systems, and as these systems blend and overlap into a global missile defense architecture, they will affect assessments, among both adversaries and allies, of regional and global stability. 4Technical Controversy: Can Missile Defense Work? chapter abstract Perhaps the most important and contentious question regarding ballistic missile defenses is whether can they work. However, the answer to this question is not simple and will depend on many factors, such as the type of defense, the nature of the attacking missiles, the circumstances of the attacks, and the standards by which the success or failure of the defense is judged. Broadly speaking, many supporters of ballistic missile defenses argue that not only can they work but that they have already demonstrated that they will work. On the other hand, critics argue that not only is the effectiveness of defenses unproven but that there are fundamental reasons to believe that they will never be able to function effectively. 5Congress and Missile Defense chapter abstract Congress has been more involved in missile defense than it usually is on national security, but its motivations and impact are often misunderstood. One common misconception is that missile defense was intensely controversial during the twentieth century but now represents a rare area of stable consensus across party lines and between the Executive Branch and Congress. Another is that Congress has been unusually active on missile defense because the public strongly supports it and would punish politicians who did not. A deeper look shows that there is not, and never has been, a consensus about the feasibility and desirability of comprehensive missile defense, nor on related questions such as how nuclear deterrence works and what, if any, role arms control should play in security policy. 6Europe and Missile Defense chapter abstract This chapter assesses American missile defense initiatives in Europe over the last ten years. Specifically, it reviews missile defense priorities under the George W. Bush administration for a "third site" in Europe and the follow-on initiative for a European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) unveiled by the Obama administration. Th…