The Probabilistic SIR Model (PSIR) in the Pandemic Process

With all the insights experienced in the COVID process, one essential remains: "The virus remains a constant companion". In contrast to regularly occurring infection processes, a COVID infection takes a different course. This is characterized by a dynamic that deviates from conventional, well-known processes in that the originators change their identity and develop corresponding variants. Therefore, preventive infection management - supported by statistical-probabilistic analyzes with PSIR - is important for preventive management of resources and infrastructure for the "waves ahead of the wave".

Deployment of resources at an early stage

Auteur
Marcus Hellwig is a quality manager as qualified by the German Society for Quality DGQ and author of specialist books.

Contenu
Occasion, derived from a letter to the editor.- Objectives.- SIR model as a basis for a probabilistic model.- Introduction: Consideration of an infection interval for a federal state.- The infection curve I(t) is replaced by the skewed, steep Eqb density function.- Random ranges of NV and Eqb.- Presentation of the equibalance distribution, Eqb.- Infection management in connection with the course of the incidence.- Infection, avoidance and healing process, feedback.- Representation of a process management.- Pre-phase planning supported by network planning technology.- Summary.