An Econometric Model of the US Economy

This book explores the US economy from 1960 to 2010 using a more Keynsian, Cowles model approach, which the author argues has substantial advantages over the vector autoregression (VAR) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models used almost exclusively today. Heim presents a robust argument in favor of the Cowles model as an answer to the pressing, unresolved methodological question of how to accurately model the macroeconomy so that policymakers can reliably use these models to assist their decision making. Thirty-eight behavioral equations, describing determinants of variables such as consumption, taxes, and government spending, are connected by eighteen identities to construct a comprehensive model of the real US economy that Heim then tests across four different time periods to ensure that results are consistent. This comprehensive demonstration of the value of a long-ignored model provides overwhelming evidence that the more Keynesian (Cowles) structural models outperform VAR and DSGE, and therefore should be the models of choice in future macroeconomic studies.

Connects behavioral equations into a comprehensive model of the real US economy Includes comprehensive comparisons of results from older Cowles model and newer VAR and DSGE models Features 75 variables Features findings confirmed by retesting in different time periods and models

Auteur
John J. Heim is Visiting Professor at University of Albany-SUNY, and retired Clinical Professor of Economics at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, both in New York, USA.

Contenu

1. Introduction to Part 1 (Production of the GDP).- 2. Methodology.- 3. Literature Review.- 4. The Consumption Models.- 5. Models Indicating Determinants of Investment Spending and Borrowing.- 6. The Exports Demand Equation.- 7. Statistically Estimated Real GDP Determination Functions ("IS" Curves).- 8. Real GDP Determination Functions (IS Curves) Aggregated from Estimates Obtained by Statistically Estimating the Subcomponent Functions Comprising the GDP .- 9. Determinants of the Prime Interest Rate: Taylor Rule Method.- 10. Determinants of the Prime Interest Rate: LM Curve Method.- 11. Determinants of Inflation: The Phillips Curve Model.- 12. Determinants of Unemployment.- 13. The Savings Functions.- 14. Determinants of Government Receipts.- 15. Edogeneity of Government Spending.- 16. Capacity of the Model to Explain Behavior of the Macroeconomy in the Years beyond the Period Used to Estimate the Model.- 17. Converting the Older Keynsian IS-LM Model to the More Modern AS-AD Interpretation of the Kenysian Model.- 18. Dynamics.- 19. Summary and Conclusions (Production Side of the NIPA Accounts).- 20. Part II: Determinants of Factor Shares (Income Side of the NIPA Accounts).