Forecast Verification

Informationen zum Autor Editors Ian T. Jolliff e and David B. Stephenson, both at the University of Exeter, UK Klappentext Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas.Reviews of first edition:"This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004)"...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005)NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts Includes new Appendix on Verification SoftwareCover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories - see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press). Zusammenfassung Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas.Reviews of first edition:"This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004)"...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005)NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts Includes new Appendix on Verification SoftwareCover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories - see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press). Inhaltsverzeichnis List of Contributors xi Preface xiii Preface to the First Edition xv 1 Introduction 1 Ian T. Jolliffe and David B. Stephenson 1.1 A brief history and current practice 1 1.1.1 History 1 1.1.2 Current practice 2 1.2 Reasons for forecast verification and its benefits 3 1.3 Types of forecast and verification data 4 1.4 Scores, skill and value 5 1.4.1 Skill scores 6 1.4.2 Artificial skill 6 1.4.3 Statistical significance 7 1.4....

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Editors Ian T. Jolliff e and David B. Stephenson, both at the University of Exeter, UK

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Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. Reviews of first edition: "This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004) "...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005) NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts * Includes new Appendix on Verification Software Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories - see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).

Contenu

List of Contributors xi

Preface xiii

Preface to the First Edition xv

1 Introduction 1
*Ian T. Jolliffe and David B. Stephenson*

1.1 A brief history and current practice 1

1.1.1 History 1

1.1.2 Current practice 2

1.2 Reasons for forecast verification and its benefits 3

1.3 Types of forecast and verification data 4

1.4 Scores, skill and value 5

1.4.1 Skill scores 6

1.4.2 Artificial skill 6

1.4.3 Statistical significance 7

1.4.4 Value added 8

1.5 Data quality and other practical considerations 8

1.6 Summary 9

2 Basic concepts 11
*Jacqueline M. Potts*

2.1 Introduction 11

2.2 Types of predictand 11

2.3 Exploratory methods 12

2.4 Numerical descriptive measures 15

2.5 Probability, random variables and expectations 20

2.6 Joint, marginal and conditional distributions 20

2.7 Accuracy, association and skill 22

2.8 Properties of verification measures 22

2.9 Verification as a regression problem 23

2.10 The Murphy-Winkler framework 25

2.11 Dimensionality of the verification problem 28

3 Deterministic forecasts of binary events 31
*Robin J. Hogan and Ian B. Mason*

3.1 Introduction 31

3.2 Theoretical considerations 33

3.2.1 Some basic descriptive statistics 33

3.2.2 A general framework for verification: the distributions-oriented approach 34

3.2.3 Performance measures in terms of factorizations of the joint distribution 37

3.2.4 Diagrams for visualizing performance measures 38

3.2.5 Case study: verification of cloud-fraction forecasts 41

3.3 Signal detection theory and the ROC 42

3.3.1 The signal detection model 43

3.3.2 The relative operating characteristic (ROC) 44

3.4 Metaverification: criteria for assessing performance measures 45

3.4.1 Desirable properties 45

3.4.2 Other properties 49

3.5 Performance measures 50

3.5.1 Overview of performance measures 51

3.5.2 Sampling uncertainty and confidence intervals for performance measures 55

3.5.3 Optimal threshold probabilities 57

Acknowledgements 59

4 Deterministic forecasts of multi-category events 61
*Robert E. Livezey*

4.1 Introduction 61

4.2 The contingency table: notation, definitions, and measures of accuracy 62

4.2.1 Notation and definitions 62

4.2.2 Measures of accuracy 64

4.3 Skill scores 64

4.3.1 Desirable attributes 65

4.3.2 Gandin and Murphy eq…