Stock Trader's Almanac 2025

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Praise for Stock Trader's Almanac

"Traders and investors alike look forward to getting their copy of the Stock Trader's Almanac each year. It's the perfect way to set our expectations for what's to come and to harvest the lessons of all that's come before."
--Downtown Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management and star of CNBC's The Halftime Report "Investors need to respect the seasonals and other historical factors that can influence stocks. The Stock Trader's Almanac is one of the best references for these factors and cycles."
--Thomas J. Lee, CFA, Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors "I do not use seasonality in my work yet I find myself reaching for the Stock Trader's Almanac often. It's more than seasonality: it's data, it's sentiment, it's a must-have if you're involved in markets."
--Helene Meisler, Columnist for TheStreet and Real Money, 40-year market technician and equity trader "The Stock Trader's Almanac gives you a daily guide to 2025 ... a year in advance. I've been reading it since the first 1968 edition was published."
--Larry Williams, Legendary stock, futures and commodities trader and author "Churchill told us, 'The longer you can look back, the farther you can look forward.' Fortunately, Jeff does this for us year in and year out. The Stock Trader's Almanac is an invaluable resource."
--Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, Carson Group "The essential guide that deservedly sits on every professional trade desk on Wall Street. Active traders who have overlooked the Almanac are just asking for trouble."
--Barry Ritholtz, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, Ritholtz Wealth Management, and host of Bloomberg Radio's Masters in Business podcast

Contenu

7 Introduction to the Fifty-Eighth Edition

10 2025 Outlook

12 2025 Strategy Calendar

14 January Almanac

16 January's First Five Days: An Early Warning System

18 The Incredible January Barometer (Devised 1972): Only 12 Significant Errors in 74 Years

20 Bulls Win When Market Hits The January Trifecta

22 February Almanac

24 Down Januarys: A Remarkable Record

26 Market Charts of Post-Presidential Election Years

28 Post-Election Year Performance by Party

30 March Almanac

32 Post-Election Years: Paying the Piper

34 Market Fares Better Under Democrats; Dollar Holds Up Under Republicans

36 The December Low Indicator: A Useful Prognosticating Tool

38 How to Trade Best Months Switching Strategies

40 April Almanac

42 Dow Jones Industrials One-Year Seasonal Pattern Charts Since 1901

44 S&P 500 One-Year Seasonal Pattern Charts Since 1930

46 NASDAQ, Russell 1000 & 2000 One-Year Seasonal Pattern Charts Since 1971

48 May Almanac

50 Summer Market Volume Doldrums Drive Worst Six Months

52 Top Performing Months: Standard & Poor's 500 and Dow Jones Industrials

54 "Best Six Months": Still an Eye-Popping Strategy

56 MACD-Timing Triples "Best Six Months" Results

58 June Almanac

60 Top Performing NASDAQ Months

62 Get More out of NASDAQ's "Best Eight Months" with MACD Timing

64 Triple Returns, Fewer Trades: Best 6 + 4-Year Cycle

66 July Almanac

68 First Month of Quarters Is the Most Bullish

70 2023 Daily Dow Point Changes (Dow Jones Industrial Average)

72 Don't Sell Stocks on Monday or Friday

74 August Almanac

76 A Rally for All Seasons

78 Take Advantage of Down Friday/Down Monday Warning

80 Republican Congress & Democratic President Is Best for the Market

82 Fourth Quarter Market Magic

84 September Almanac

86 Market Gains More on Super-8 Days Each Month Than on All 13 Remaining Days Combined

88 A Correction for All Seasons

90 First-Trading-Day-of-the-Month Phenomenon

92 October Almanac

94 Sector Seasonality: Selected Percentage Plays

96 Sector Index Seasonality Strategy Calendar

100 November Almanac

102 Market Behavior Three Days Before and Three Days After Holidays

104 Traders Feast on Small Stocks Thanksgiving Through Santa Claus Rally

106 Trading the Thanksgiving Market

108 Aura of the Quad Witch-4th Quarter Most Bullish: Down Weeks Trigger More Weakness Week After

110 December Almanac

112 Most of the So-Called January Effect Takes Place in the Last Half of December

114 January Effect Now Starts in Mid-December

116 Wall Street's Only "Free Lunch" Served Before Christmas

118 If Santa Claus Should Fail to Call, Bears May Come to Broad and Wall

120 2026 Strategy Calendar

123 Dow Jones Industrials Market Probability Calendar 2025

124 Recent Dow Jones Industrials Market Probability Calendar 2025

125 S&P 500 Market Probability Calendar 2025

126 Recent S&P 500 Market Probability Calendar 2025

127 NASDAQ Composite Market Probability Calendar 2025

128 Recent NASDAQ Composite Market Probability Calendar 2025

129 Russell 1000 Index Market Probability Calendar 2025

130 Russell 2000 Index Market Probability Calendar 2025

131 Decennial Cycle: A Market Phenomenon

132 Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle: The 191-Year Saga Continues

133 Dow Jones Industrials Bull and Bear Markets Since 1900

134 Standard & Poor's 500 Bull and Bear Markets Since 1929/ NASDAQ Composite Since 1971

135 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: January and February

136 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: March and April

137 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: May and June

138 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: July and August

139 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: September and October

140 Dow Jones Industrials 10-Year Daily Point Changes: November and December

141 A Typical Day in the Market

142 Through the Week on a Half-Hourly Basis

143 Tuesday & Friday Most Profitable Days of Week

144 NASDAQ Strongest Last 3 Days of Week

145 S&P Daily Performance Each Year Since 1952

146 NASDAQ Daily Performance Each Year Since 1971

147 Monthly Cash Inflows into S&P Stocks

148 Monthly Cash Inflows into NASDAQ Stocks

149 November, December, and January: Year's Best Three-Month Span

150 November Through June: NASDAQ's Eight-Month Run

151 Dow Jones Industrials Annual Highs, Lows, & Closes Since 1901

153 S&P 500 Annual Highs, Lows, & Closes Since 1930

154 NASDAQ Annual Highs, Lows, & Closes Since 1971

155 Russell 1000 and 2000 Annual Highs, Lows, & Closes Since 1979

156 Dow Jones Industrials Monthly Percent Changes Since 1950

158 Dow Jones Industrials Monthly Point Changes Since 1950

160 Dow Jones Industrials Monthly Closing Prices Since 1950

162 Standard & Poor's 500 Monthly Percent Changes Since 1950

164 Standard & Poor's 500 Monthly Closing Prices Since 1950

166 NASDAQ Composite Monthly Percent Changes Since 1971

168 NASDAQ Composite Monthly Closing Prices Since 1971

170 Russell 1000 Index Monthly Percent Changes Since 1979

171 Russell 1000 Index Monthly Closing Prices Since 1979

172 Russell 2000 Index Monthly Percent Changes Since 1979

173 Russell 2000 Index Monthly Closing Prices Since 1979

174 10 Best Days by Percent and Point

175 10 Worst Days by Percent and Point

176 10 Best Weeks by Percent and Point

177 10 Worst Weeks by Percent and Point

178 10 Best Months by Percent and Point

179 10 Worst Months by Percent and Point

180 10 Best Quarters by Percent and Point

181 10 Worst Quarters by Percent and Point

182 10 Best Years by Percent and Point

183 10 Worst Years by Percent and Point Strategy Planning and Record Section

185 Portfolio at Start of 2025

186 Additional Purchases

188 Short-Term Transactions

190 Long-Term Transactions

192 Interest/Dividends Received During 2025/Brokerage Account Data 2025

193 Weekly Portfolio Price Record 2025

195 Weekly …