Modeling Shifting Mortality, and Its Applications

This book describes a novel method for mortality modeling applying the shifting feature of the mortality curve. In Japan, the increase and pace of the extension in life expectancy have been quite remarkable. Therefore, existing mortality models often cannot capture the peculiarities of Japanese mortality, nor can the LeeCarter model, which is now regarded internationally as a standard model. One of the important concepts to model recent Japanese mortality is a shifting feature. In this book, the linear difference model, which has many advantages for modeling and analyzing Japanese mortality, is introduced. The book shows applications of the model to mortality projection with a tangent vector field approach and decomposition of the change of modal age at death. The models introduced here are useful tools for modeling mortality with strong shifting features, as in Japan.

Auteur

Dr. Futoshi Ishii is a professor of Keio University, Tokyo, Japan. He received his Ph.D. in demography from University of California, Berkeley, in 2014. He is a formal demographer who has contributed to the official population projections for Japan when he worked at the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS). He is a founding director of the Japanese Mortality Database at IPSS, which is a database of Japanese life tables frequently used in mortality studies for Japan.

His major research fields are population projection, mortality analysis, and mathematical demography. He has published many books and papers in these fields that include co-edited book "Choju Kenko no Jinkogaku (Demography of Longevity and Health)"(Hara Shobo 2021).

Contenu

Introduction.- Mortality Trends and Projection Models in Japan.- Data and Methods.- Linear Difference Model.- Tangent Vector Field Approach to Mortality Projection.- Application to Analysis of the Trends of Modal Age at Death.- Summary and Conclusion.