Europe: One Continent, Different Worlds

On the threshold of a new century the organisers of the European Population Conference 1999 (EPC99) in The Hague decided not only to highlight the population trends that Europe is facing today but also the changes in the 2 pt century that are set to shape the future of Europe. They decided to focus on comparative issues, both in time and in space. In order to trace the degree of homogeneity and heterogeneity of European populations over time, converging and diverging population trends that are specific to contemporary and future Europe need to be explored. This is reflected in EPC99's motto: 'European Populations on the threshold of the new millennium; unity in diversity. ' Future demographic developments will be caused by specific economic, social and cultural conditions in Europe, and will, in turn, have a major influence on future economic and social conditions. To the extent that demographic trends differ across countries, separate countries may face different social and economic problems. As demographic trends tend to have long-lasting effects, it is important to assess the possible consequences of future demographic developments at an early stage. On the occasion of EPC99, two of the organisers, Statistics Netherlands (SN) and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), decided to produce a set of two population scenarios, showing the possible impact of converging and diverging population trends in the next century .

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Future demographic developments in Europe will be caused by the specific economic, social and cultural context, and will, in turn, have a major influence on future economic and social conditions. To the extent that demographic trends differ across countries, separate countries may face different social and economic problems. As demographic trends tend to have long-lasting effects, it is important to assess the possible consequences of future demographic developments at an early stage. Within the European context, the question can be raised whether the socioeconomic and cultural dimensions of society are dominated by convergent or divergent forces, and what the consequences are of these assumed convergent or divergent tendencies for long-term future demographic developments in the countries of Europe. Since there is no unambiguous answer to this question, this book describes two alternative scenarios for Europe's future population. In the Uniformity scenario, convergent forces are dominant. This will eventually lead to a situation where only marginal economic and cultural differences exist across Europe. Trends in fertility and mortality will converge up to the year 2050, although over time patterns may differ across countries as a result of their different initial states. In contrast to the Uniformity scenario, a Diversity scenario is constructed where cultural, economic and demographic characteristics remain significantly different across countries. This book is the result of close collaboration between researchers from the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and Statistics Netherlands (SN). Although the project was a joint effort by all researchers involved, the book has assumed the form of an edited volume, with separate chapters by small groups of authors. The authors are, of course, responsible for writing their own contributions, but they were often involved to a certain extent in the realisation of some of the other chapters as well.

Contenu
to the Uniformity and Diversity scenarios.- Determinants of demographic behaviour.- 2.1. Theoretical framework.- 2.2. The socioeconomic dimension.- 2.3. The cultural dimension.- 2.4. Empirical analysis of the determinants.- Uniformity and Diversity defined.- 3.1. Introduction.- 3.2. Clustering of the European countries.- 3.3. Uniformity and Diversity scenarios.- Uniformity and Diversity scenarios for fertility.- 4.1. Introduction.- 4.2. Differences in fertility trends between European countries.- 4.3. Fertility prospects for Europe.- 4.4. Fertility scenarios.- Uniformity and Diversity scenarios for mortality.- 5.1. Introduction.- 5.2. Differences in mortality between European countries.- 5.3. Mortality prospects for Europe.- 5.4. Mortality assumptions.- Uniformity and Diversity scenarios for international migration.- 6.1. Introduction.- 6.2. Backgrounds to differences in international migration trends in Europe.- 6.3. Migration prospects for Europe.- 6.4. Migration scenarios.- Population development in Europe in the 21st century.- 7.1. Introduction.- 7.2. Population change.- 7.3. Natural growth versus net migration.- 7.4. Ageing.- 7.5. Dejuvenation.- 7.6. The working-age population.- 7.7. Age dependency ratios.- 7.8. Population developments in the individual clusters.- 7.9. Variability in population growth in the scenarios.- One Europe: how many different worlds in the 21st century?.- 8.1. Introduction.- 8.2. Scenario assumptions.- 8.3. Results.- 8.4. How realistic are the scenarios.- 8.5. Implications of the scenarios.- References.- Appendix 1.- Appendix 2.