Discourse on Social Planning under Uncertainty

Préface
Provides a broad perspective on the vexing problem of social planning under uncertainty, and specific methodologies to cope with it.

Auteur
Charles F. Manski is Board of Trustees Professor in the Department of Economics and Institute for Policy Research at Northwestern University. He is a Member of the National Academy of Sciences and a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Econometric Society, the American Statistical Association, and the British Academy. His research spans econometrics, judgment and decision, and analysis of public policy.

Texte du rabat

"Integrates research in three fields -welfare economics, decision theory, and econometrics- to address uncertainty in the formation of public policy. Although all three fields are central to planning under uncertainty, they have interacted little with one another. This book enables researchers to interact constructively and build on mutual concerns"--

Résumé
Economists have long studied policy choice by social planners aiming to maximize population welfare. Whether performing theoretical studies or applied analyses, researchers have generally assumed that the planner knows enough about the choice environment to be able to determine an optimal action. However, the consequences of decisions are often highly uncertain. Discourse on Social Planning under Uncertainty addresses the failure of research to come to grips with this uncertainty. Combining research across three fields welfare economics, decision theory, and econometrics this impressive study offers a comprehensive treatment that fleshes out a 'worldview' and juxtaposes it with other viewpoints. Building on multiple case studies, ranging from medical treatment to climate policy, the book explains analytical methods and how to apply them, providing a foundation on which future interdisciplinary work can build.

Contenu
Preface; 1. Credible Planning Under Uncertainty; Part I. Characterizing Uncertainty; 2. Incredible Certitude; 3. Identification of Treatment Response; 4. Identification of Choice Behavior and Personal Welfare; Part II. Analyses of Planning Problems: 5. Diversified Treatment under Ambiguity; 6. Treatment with Data from Statistically Imprecise Trials; 7. Personalized Treatment; 8. Vaccination with Unknown Indirect Effects; 9. Climate Planning with Uncertainty in Climate Modeling and Intergenerational Discounting; 10. Looking Ahead.