Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick

Beat the odds with a bold strategy

We've all seen hockey stick business plans before. A future where results sail confidently upward, but with a dip coinciding with next year's budget.

CEOs usually rely on their experience and business smarts to figure out which of those hockey sticks are real, and which are fake. But all too often getting to a "yes," competing for resources, and striving to claim credit, cloud the hard decisions. Another strategy framework? No thanks, we already have plenty of those, and they don't fix the real problem: the social dynamics in your strategy room.

Mining the data from thousands of large companies, McKinsey Partners Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt and Sven Smit open the windows of that room, and bring an "outside view." They found three discrete groups of companies: the bottom quintile with massive economic losses; the long, flat, middle 60 percent with practically no economic profit; and the top 20 percent to whom all the value accrues.

Some companies do achieve real hockey stick performance: but just 1-in-12 jump from the middle tier to the top over a ten year period. This does not happen by magic--there is an empirically-backed science to improve your odds of success by capitalizing on your endowment, riding the right trends, and most importantly, making a few big moves.

To make these big moves happen, you're going to have to break through inertia, gamesmanship and risk aversion. You're going to have to mitigate human biases and manage group dynamics. Eight practical shifts can help you do this, and unlock bigger, bolder, better strategies.

This is not another by-the-book approach to strategy. It's not another trudge through frameworks or small-scale case studies promising a secret formula for success. It's an irreverent, fact-driven, and humorous take on the real world of strategic decision making.

Auteur

SVEN SMIT is a Senior Partner in Amsterdam. He leads McKinsey Western Europe and, before that, led McKinsey's Strategy Practice. He is the co-author of the bestselling book Granularity of Growth. MARTIN HIRT is a Senior Partner in Greater China. He leads McKinsey's Global Strategy & Corporate Finance Practice. CHRIS BRADLEY is a Partner in Sydney. He leads McKinsey's Business Strategy service line.

Texte du rabat

PRAISE FOR STRATEGY BEYOND THE HOCKEY STICK > ?JANE FRASER, CEO, Citigroup Latin America > ?MARTIN LAU, President, Tencent Technology > ?FRANS VAN HOUTEN, CEO, Royal Philips N.V. "Sustaining institutions long-term often means determining what must evolve. Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick provides a roadmap for strategic evolution and a toolkit for identifying big moves that will take already strong organizations to the next level of performance."
?WENDELL WEEKS, Chairman and CEO, Corning Incorporated "Every once in a while, a genuinely fresh approach to business strategy appears. Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick delivers exactly that. Its analysis of the human elements in strategy-making?social, psychological, and political?cuts to the heart of why most strategies are banal and fail to focus action. If you want to break out of the rut, get this book."
?PROF. RICHARD RUMELT, UCLA Anderson School of Management "The great contribution of this book is that it joins the 'hard data' side to the equally crucial?and largely ignored?arena of social dynamics and human leadership. It is this rare combo of the 'hard' and the 'soft' that makes Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick so distinctive."
?PROF. ROBERT KEGAN, Harvard Graduate School of Education

Résumé
Beat the odds with a bold strategy We've all seen hockey stick business plans before. A future where results sail confidently upward, but with a dip coinciding with next year's budget. CEOs usually rely on their experience and business smarts to figure out which of those hockey sticks are real, and which are fake. But all too often getting to a "yes," competing for resources, and striving to claim credit, cloud the hard decisions. Another strategy framework? No thanks, we already have plenty of those, and they don't fix the real problem: the social dynamics in your strategy room. Mining the data from thousands of large companies, McKinsey Partners Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt and Sven Smit open the windows of that room, and bring an "outside view." They found three discrete groups of companies: the bottom quintile with massive economic losses; the long, flat, middle 60 percent with practically no economic profit; and the top 20 percent to whom all the value accrues. Some companies do achieve real hockey stick performance: but just 1-in-12 jump from the middle tier to the top over a ten year period. This does not happen by magic--there is an empirically-backed science to improve your odds of success by capitalizing on your endowment, riding the right trends, and most importantly, making a few big moves. To make these big moves happen, you're going to have to break through inertia, gamesmanship and risk aversion. You're going to have to mitigate human biases and manage group dynamics. Eight practical shifts can help you do this, and unlock bigger, bolder, better strategies. This is not another by-the-book approach to strategy. It's not another trudge through frameworks or small-scale case studies promising a secret formula for success. It's an irreverent, fact-driven, and humorous take on the real world of strategic decision making.

Contenu

Introduction: Welcome to the Strategy Room 1

You are not alone 2

The villain is the social side of strategy 4

Where is the outside view? 6

Making big moves happen 8

The journey ahead of us 9

1. Games in the Strategy Room-and Why People Play Them 13

The social side of strategy, in action 15

The dreaded hockey stick 17

Can we handle the truth? 20

Playing the inside game 21

Send in the guru 22

The wrong problem for human brains 23

The biased mind 25

Now add social dynamics to the mix 27

When the inside view remains unchecked 31

2. Opening the Windows of Your Strategy Room 37

The right yardstick 40

Your business lives on a Power Curve 42

What we see on the map 44

Why you are where you are 49

A fresh perspective with the outside view 53

3. Hockey Stick Dreams, Hairy Back Realities 57

The rise of the hairy back 58

Getting to yes 60

A haircut from finance 60

Bold forecasts 62

Timid plans 68

Corporate peanut butter 70

Shooting for the known 70

Real hockey sticks 72

4. What are the Odds? 75

The knowable probability of success 77

Flight paths of the upwardly mobile 80

A tale of three companies 83

Where are the odds in the strategy room? 85

The push for certainty 87

You are your numbers 89

5. How to Find the Real Hockey Stick 93

What's different this time? 94

Check the facts 95

The odds that matter: Yours 96

The 10 variables that make the difference 99

Endowment 100

Trends 101

Moves 102

It all matters 103

The mobility dashboard 105

Know the odds 109

Is that all? 110

6. The Writing is on the Wall 115

A very different conversation about strategy 118

Tennis or badminton? 119

Industries are escalators 120

Change your industry or change industries 123

Consider changing locations, too 124

Go micro 125

The need for privileged insights 127

Acting on the writing on the wall 128

The four stages of a disruptive trend 130

Stage one: Signals amid the noise 132

Stage two: Change takes hold 134

Stage three: The inevitable transformation 136

The hardest stage 136

Stage four: Adapting to the new normal 139

7. Making the Right (big) Moves 143

Big moves are essential 146

Corning's story 150

Programmatic M&A and divestitures 150

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