Introduction to Catastrophe Risk Modelling

Auteur

Arnaud Mignan is a renowned expert in catastrophe risk assessment, who has worked at leading firms and institutes in London, Zurich, and Shenzhen over the past two decades. He developed innovative models while at Risk Management Solutions and catastrophic domino-effect models - featured in a national newspaper and Euronews - while at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. Later, as an associate professor at the Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), established by the Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech) and a guest professor at the ETH Risk Center in Zurich, he crafted the course Introduction to Catastrophe Risk Modelling. Since 2023, he has been CEO of Mignan Risk Analytics GmbH and acts as a leading specialist for the World Bank.

Résumé
Focusing on the physics of the catastrophe process and addressed directly to advanced students, this innovative textbook quantifies dozens of perils, both natural and man-made, and covers the latest developments in catastrophe modelling. Combining basic statistics, applied physics, natural and environmental sciences, civil engineering, and psychology, the text remains at an introductory level, focusing on fundamental concepts for a comprehensive understanding of catastrophe phenomenology and risk quantification. A broad spectrum of perils are covered, including geophysical, hydrological, meteorological, climatological, biological, extraterrestrial, technological and socio-economic, as well as events caused by domino effects and global warming. Following industry standards, the text provides the necessary tools to develop a CAT model from hazard to loss assessment. Online resources include a CAT risk model starter-kit and a CAT risk modelling 'sandbox' with Python Jupyter tutorial. Every process, described by equations, (pseudo)codes and illustrations, is fully reproducible, allowing students to solidify knowledge through practice.

Contenu

Foreword; Preface; Acronyms and Symbols; Part I. Basics of CAT Modelling: 1. Overview of catastrophe risks; 2. Probabilistic hazard assessment; 3. Probabilistic risk assessment; Part II. Advanced CAT Modelling: 4. Dynamic hazard modelling; 5. Modelling of cascading effects; Part III. CAT Risk Management: 6. CAT risk management; Reference; Index.