Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.

Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

Contenu
Uncertainty and Information Modeling.- Revealed Ambiguity and Its Consequences: Updating.- Dynamic Decision Making When Risk Perception Depends on Past Experience.- Representation of Conditional Preferences Under Uncertainty.- Subjective Information in Decision Making and Communication.- Risk Modeling.- Sensitivity Analysis in Decision Making: A Consistent Approach.- Alternation Bias and the Parameterization of Cumulative Prospect Theory.- Proposing a Normative Basis for the S-Shaped Value Function.- Experimental Individual Decision Making.- Individual Choice from a Convex Lottery Set: Experimental Evidence.- Temptations and Dynamic Consistency.- Monty Hall's Three Doors for Dummies.- Overconfidence in Predictions as an Effect of Desirability Bias.- Experimental Interactive Decision Making.- Granny Versus Game Theorist: Ambiguity in Experimental Games.- Guessing Games and People Behaviours: What Can We Learn?.- The Determinants of Individual Behaviour in Network Formation: Some Experimental Evidence.