Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making

This two-volume reference is a comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM).

Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy

Provides accessible, essential information, complete with the latest research and references, for experts and non-experts alike in two volumes

Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with separate chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more

Addresses controversial topics (such as choice from description vs. choice from experience and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology) from multiple perspectives

George Wu is Professor of Behavioral Science at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago, USA. He studies the psychology of individual decision making, goal setting and cognitive biases in bargaining and negotiation. His research has been published widely in a number of journals in economics, management science, and psychology, including Cognitive Psychology , Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , Journal of Risk and Uncertainty , Management Science , Psychological Science , and Quarterly Journal of Economics . He has served as Department Editor of Management Science and is on numerous other editorial boards, including Decision Analysis , Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , Journal of Risk and Uncertainty , and Theory and Decision .

Gideon Keren is Professor emeritus of Psychology at the Tilburg Institute for Behavioral Economics Research (TIBER) at Tilburg University, the Netherlands. His early research focused on cognition and attention; his recent work has shifted toward the emerging field of behavioral decision making. His research interests include probabilistic reasoning and calibration of probabilities, the perception of randomness, intertemporal choice, framing effects, and the nature of trust. His work has been published in a large number of journals, including Psychological Review, Perspectives on Psychological Science, Cognition , and Journal of Experimental Psychology , as well as in the main journals for judgment and decision making, including Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organizations, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , and Journal of Behavioral Decision Making .

• A comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM)

• Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more

• Addresses controversial topics from multiple perspectives - such as choice from description versus choice from experience - and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology

• Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy

2 Volumes

Autorentext

George Wu is Professor of Behavioral Science at the Booth
School of Business at the University of Chicago, USA. He
studies the psychology of individual decision making, goal setting
and cognitive biases in bargaining and negotiation. His research
has been published widely in a number of journals in economics,
management science, and psychology, including Cognitive
Psychology, Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,
Management Science, Psychological Science, and
Quarterly Journal of Economics. He has served as Department
Editor of Management Science and is on numerous other
editorial boards, including Decision Analysis, Journal of
Behavioral Decision Making, Journal of Risk and
Uncertainty, and Theory and Decision.

Gideon Keren is Professor emeritus of Psychology at the
Tilburg Institute for Behavioral Economics Research (TIBER) at
Tilburg University, the Netherlands. His early research focused on
cognition and attention; his recent work has shifted toward the
emerging field of behavioral decision making. His research
interests include probabilistic reasoning and calibration of
probabilities, the perception of randomness, intertemporal choice,
framing effects, and the nature of trust. His work has been
published in a large number of journals, including Psychological
Review, Perspectives on Psychological Science, Cognition, and
Journal of Experimental Psychology, as well as in the main
journals for judgment and decision making, including Journal of
Economic Behaviour and Organizations, Organizational Behavior
and Human Decision Processes, and Journal of Behavioral
Decision Making.

Leseprobe
1
A Bird's-Eye View of the History of Judgment and Decision Making

Gideon Keren

Department of Psychology, Tilburg University, the Netherlands

George Wu

University of Chicago, Booth School of Business, USA

Any historical account has a subjective element in it and is thus vulnerable to the benefit of hindsight (Fischhoff, 1975; Roese & Vohs, 2012). This historical review of 60 years of judgment and decision making (JDM) research is of course no exception. Our attempt to sketch the major developments of the field since its inception is further colored by the interests and knowledge of the two authors and thus surely reflects any number of egocentric biases (Dunning & Hayes, 1996; Ross, Greene, & House, 1977). Notwithstanding, we feel that there is a high level of agreement among JDM researchers as to the main developments that have shaped the field. This chapter is an attempt to document this consensus and trace the impact of these developments on the field.

The present handbook is the successor to the Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making that appeared in 2004. That handbook, edited by Derek Koehler and Nigel Harvey, was the first handbook of judgment and decision making. Our overview of the field is prompted by the following plausible counterfactual: What if one or more JDM handbooks had appeared prior to 2004? 1 Handbooks might (and should) alter the course of a field by making useful content accessible, providing organizing frameworks, and posing important questions (Farr, 1991). Although we recognize these important roles, our chapter is motivated by one other function of a handbook: a handbook's editors serve as curators of that field's ideas and thus identify which research streams are important and energetic (and presumably most worth pursuing) and which ones are not. This chapter thus provides an overview of the field by considering what we would include in two hypothetical JDM handbooks, one published in 1974 and one published in 1988. We attempt to identify which topics were viewed as the major questions and main developments at the time of those handbooks. In so doing, we reveal how the field has evolved, identifying research areas that have more or less always been central to the field as well as those that have declined in importance. For the latter topics, we speculate about reasons for their decreased prominence.

Our chapter's organization complements more traditional historical accounts of the field. Many reviews of this sort have appeared over the years in Annual Review of Psychology (e.g., Becker & McClintock, 1967; Edwards, 1961; Einhorn & Hogarth, 1981; Gigerenzer & Gaissmaier, 2011; Hastie, 2001; Lerner, Li, Valdesolo, & Kassam, 2015; Lopes, 1994; Mellers Schwartz, & Cooke, 1998; Oppenheimer & Kelso, 2015; Payne,…