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Published in 1991, the first edition of Forecasting and
Management of Technology was one of the leading handful of
books to deal with the topic of forecasting of technology and
technology management as this discipline was emerging. The
new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in
the context of business organizations that now place a greater
emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of
development. The scope of this edition has broadened to
include management of technology content that is relevant to now to
executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the
technology forecasting and analysis content that the first edition
is reputed for.
Updated by the original author team, plus new author Scott
Cunningham, the book takes into account what the authors see as the
innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the
Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including
process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that
has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology
managers. Included in this book will be 5 case studies from
various industries that show how technology management is applied
in the real world.
Autorentext
ALAN THOMAS ROPER (retired) was a professor at Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology in Terre Haute, Indiana. He is the past editor of the journal Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal and the past director of the Center for Technology and Policy Studies at Rose-Hulman.
SCOTT W. CUNNINGHAM obtained a MSc in public policy from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a DPhil in science, technology, and innovation policy from the University of Sussex. He is currently Assistant Professor of Policy Analysis in the Department of Technology, Policy, and Management at Delft University of Technology.
ALAN L. PORTER has led development of "technology opportunity analysis" and mining electronic, bibliographic data sources to generate intelligence on emerging technologies. He holds an MA in psychology and a PhD in engineering psychology, both from UCLA. He is currently Director of Research and Development for Search Technology, Inc., in Norcross, Georgia.
THOMAS W. MASON was the founding head of the Engineering Management Department (www.rose-hulman.edu/msem). While on a three-year leave from Rose-Hulman, he served as CFO and CEO of a 140-person network management systems business.
FREDERICK A. ROSSINI (retired) is a former provost at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.
JERRY BANKS is Professor Emeritus, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, Georgia.
Klappentext
An update to a respected text in the growing field of technology management
Building on the familiarity and esteem of its predecessor, this revised Second Edition of Forecasting and Management of Technology discusses general issues that are related to forecasting and management, an area that has grown in importance and sophistication over the past few decades. It includes expanded coverage of evolving methodologies through the use of numerous exhibits, case studies, and exercises to show how to apply these methods to significant issues in managing technological development. This new Second Edition:
Delivers a thorough overview of the growing field of technology management for students and professionals
Updates and strengthens the forecasting tools and methodologies that were introduced in the first edition, emphasizing a more integrated approach to making forecasts, and sharpens the focus on the role of technology in formulating a business strategy
Includes five case studies from different industries to demonstrate how these tools can be applied in real-world situations
Consistently practical in its coverage, Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second Edition delivers a detailed study of forecasting tools and analyses to assist companies in adapting to new technologies that are constantly expanding, and helps them discover the necessity and advantages of integrating technology into their organizational strategies.
Zusammenfassung
Published in 1991, the first edition of Forecasting and Management of Technology was one of the leading handful of books to deal with the topic of forecasting of technology and technology management as this discipline was emerging. The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development. The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting and analysis content that the first edition is reputed for.
Updated by the original author team, plus new author Scott Cunningham, the book takes into account what the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers. Included in this book will be 5 case studies from various industries that show how technology management is applied in the real world.
Inhalt
Acknowledgments xv
1 Introduction 1
1.1 About This Book 1
1.2 Technology and Society 2
1.2.1 Social Change 3
1.2.2 Technological Change 4
1.3 Management and the Future 6
1.3.1 Management and Innovation Processes 7
1.3.2 The Role of Technology Forecasting 9
1.3.3 The Importance of Technology Forecasting 10
1.3.4 The Role of Social Forecasting 12
1.4 Conclusions 13
References 13
2 Technology Forecasting 15
2.1 What Is Technology Forecasting? 15
2.1.1 Models of Technology Growth and Diffusion 17
2.1.2 Technology Forecasting in Context 18
2.1.3 What Makes a Forecast Good? 20
2.1.4 Common Errors in Forecasting Technology 21
2.2 Methodological Foundations 23
2.2.1 The Technology Delivery System 24
2.2.2 Inquiring Systems 28
2.3 Technology Forecasting Methods 31
2.3.1 Overview of the Most Frequently Used Forecasting Methods 33
2.3.2 Method Selection 37
2.4 Conclusion 37
References 38
3 Managing the Forecasting Project 40
3.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project 40
3.1.1 The Technology Manager's Needs 42
3.1.2 The Forecast Manager's Needs 43
3.1.3 Information about Team Members 44
3.2 Planning the Technology Forecast 46
3.3 Team Organization, Management, and Communications 47
3.3.1 Organizing and Managing the Technology Forecast 50
3.3.2 Communications 54
3.3.3 Summary Conclusions about Project Management and Organization 55
3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time 56
3.5 Project Scheduling 57
3.5.1 Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) 58
3.5.2 Gantt Chart 60
3.5.3 Project Accountability Chart (PAC) 60
3.5.4 Project Scheduling Software 61
3.6 Conclusions 62
References 62
4 Exploring 65
4.1 Establishing the Contextthe TDS 65
4.1.1 Societal and Institutional Contexts 66
4.1.2 Technology Context 67
4.1.3 Stakeholders 68
4.1.4 Understanding the TDS 69
4.1.5 An Example TDS Model 70
4.2 Monitoring 72
4.2.1 Why Monitor? 74
4.2.2 Who Should Monitor? 75
4.2.3 Monitoring Strategy 76
4.2.4 Monitoring Focused on Management of Technology Issues 79
4.2.5 Monitoring Focused on the Stage of the Technology Development 81
4.3 The Stimulation of Creativity 81
4.3.1 Five Elements of Creativity 81
4.3.2 Group Creativity 92
4.4 Conclusion 95
References 95
5 Gathering and Using Information 98
5.1 Expert Opinion 99
5.…